NZD: Pressured As US Tsy Yields Rise
Jul-20 21:17
NZD/USD prints at $0.6225/30, the pair fell ~0.5% on Thursday.
- Rising US Tsy Yields through yesterday's European and NY session, which extended gains on lower than forecast initial jobless claims, boosted the greenback and weighed on risk sentiment yesterday.
- Kiwi pared its gains seen in the Asian session falling ~1.5% from peak to trough before marginally paring losses as support was seen below $0.6220.
- Technically the pair sits on the 200-Day EMA ($0.6228) and a touch below the 20-Day EMA ($0.6233). Bears target a break of $0.62, this opens the low from 29 June ($0.6051). Bulls look to break yesterday's high ($0.6308), from here they can target the high from 14 July ($0.6412).
- AUD/NZD rose 0.5%, holding the majority of its post Australian jobs gains. The cross sits a touch under the $1.09 handle.
- The RBNZ has published its policy dates for 2025, more here.
- Cross asset wise; 10 Year US Tsy Yields were ~10bps firmer and BBDXY rose ~0.4%. S&P500 fell ~0.7% and WTI rose ~0.5%.
- The local data calendar is empty today.
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NZD: Pressured On Tuesday, 20-Day EMA Provides Support
Jun-20 21:16
NZD/USD prints at $0.6160/65, the pair fell ~0.5% yesterday.
- Risk off flows weighed on the kiwi on Tuesday, NZD/USD was pressured through the European session with support coming in below the 20-Day EMA ($0.6157).
- Losses were pared alongside US Equities firming off session lows and the USD ticking away from best levels.
- Bears look to break yesterday's lows ($0.6134), this opens year to date lows at $0.5985. Bulls immediate focus is on breaking the $0.62 handle which opens up the 200-Day EMA ($0.6233).
- AUD/NZD sits a touch above $1.10 after being unable to sustain a move below the handle on Tuesday after the RBA minutes weighed on the pair.
- Whole Milk Powder Average Price fell to $3,172/tonne, ticking lower from the prior of $3,173/tonne.
- Cross asset wise; S&P500 fell ~0.5% and BBDXY rose ~0.1%. WTI futures fell ~1%. 10 Year US Treasury Yields fell 4bps.
- The domestic data calendar is empty today.
US: President Biden To Hold Meeting On Artificial Intelligence Regulation
Jun-20 20:01
President Biden is shortly due to meet business leaders and experts in artificial intelligence as the administration hones in on a strategy for regulating the technology.
- Livestream of the meeting: LINK
- A White House official said today’s meeting will include experts and researchers discussing the challenges posed by AI... the harm from possible bias, and the potential benefits it holds...
- White House Press Secretary Karine jean-Pierre told reporters yesterday: “We remain committed to fostering responsible AI to benefit society,” and “working to mitigate the risk.”
- Bloomberg: “Ahead of the meeting, major AI companies, including Microsoft and Alphabet’s Google, committed to participating in the first independent public evaluation of their systems. But the administration is also seeking a broader regulatory push, with the Commerce Department saying earlier this year that it was considering rules that could require AI models to go through a certification process before release.”
- Foreign Policy today drew comparison between, "the current race for supremacy in AI to the nuclear race several decades ago."
- FP: "The great scramble for AI is having a profound impact on global power. In fact, it has for a while. Semiconductors are already shaping wars, cyberattacks, alliances, and more."
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable
Jun-20 19:58
- RES 4: 1.3585 High Jun 1
- RES 3: 1.3450 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3375 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3302/3355 Low Apr 14 / High Jun 15
- PRICE: 1.3225 @ 20:50 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: 1.3175 Low Jun 19
- SUP 2: 1.3154 Low Sep 15 2022
- SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14 2022
- SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
USDCAD traded sharply lower last week, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3262 has been cleared, the Feb 2 low. Price has also breached an important support at 1.3226, the Nov 15 2022 low. This strengthens the bearish condition and signals scope for a move towards 1.3154, the Sep 15 2022 low and 1.3139, the Sep 14 low of last year. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3375, the 20-day EMA.
