CHILE: Predictions Markets See Jara-Kast Run-Off As Overwhelmingly Likely
With just a few days to go until the first round of the presidential election on 16 November, political prediction markets show a strong bias towards the view that the two candidates set to make the December run-off will be left-wing Unity for Chile (UpCh) candidate Jeanette Jara and right-wing populist Republican Party of Chile (PRCh) leader Jose Antonio Kast. Data from Polymarket shows an overall implied probability of 81% that the 14 December run-off will be between Jara and Kast, the latter of whom was defeated by incumbent left-wing President Gabriel Boric in the 2021 run-off by a margin of 56%-44%.
- Jara has consistently topped first-round opinion polls since she won the primary election to be the UpCh presidential candidate on 29 June, and is viewed as all-but-guaranteed to make the run-off.
- Kast has generally come in second place in most first-round polls, but in the last weeks before the moratorium on new polls came in two weeks before the election on 2 Nov had notably trended downwards. While Kast remains the most likely candidate to face Jara, libertarian National Deputy Johannes Kaiser did record an increase in polling support during the course of late September and October.
- Kaiser's National Libertarian Party (PNL) sits in the same right-wing Change for Chile alliance as Kast's PRCh. While viewed as more socially conservative than Argentinian President Javier Milei, Kaiser's candidacy may see something of a boost from the recent electoral success of the neighbouring libertarian.
- Hypothetical second-round polling has shown Kast and centre-right candidate Evelyn Matthei as favourites to beat Jara, with a potential Jara-Kaiser contest much closer. In any case, there remains a large section of undecided voters, meaning pre-first-round predictions could be significantly shaken up after 16 Nov.
Chart 1. Prediction Market Implied Probability of Candidates Making Presidential Second-Round Election, %
Source: Polymarket
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
