US DATA: PPI Beat From Volatile Trade Services, Preferred Core Softer On Balance
Feb-27 13:45
PPI inflation was stronger than expected at a headline level in the delayed January report but core PPI was in line with M/M expectations for January alone and on the whole a little softer after factoring in downward revisions. Still, despite a slightly softer print in January, core input cost pressures clearly remain elevated.
- Final demand 0.48% M/M (sa, cons 0.3) in Jan after a slightly downward revised 0.43% (initial 0.49%) in Dec.
- However, it was boosted by another strong increase in the volatile trade services category (2.5% after 1.8%).
- Our preferred core PPI metric (ex food, energy & trade services) meanwhile was exactly as expected at 0.31% M/M (sa, cons 0.3) after net downward revisions worth -0.07pp over the prior four months, most recently following 0.27% M/M (initial 0.36) in Dec and 0.26% (vs 0.22) in Nov.
- Core PPI eased to 3.4% Y/Y (cons 3.5) after 3.52% in Dec and a recent high of 3.56% in Nov (highest since Feb 2025). Whilst it has cooled slightly, it still hold most of the acceleration from the recent bottoming at 2.6% in June and compares with the 2.3% Y/Y averaged in the three years ahead of the pandemic.
- The six-month seasonally adjusted rate meanwhile eased but to a still strong 4.1% annualized after 4.9% (revised from 5.2%) in December, continuing to suggest near-term upside pressures to the Y/Y ahead.
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GERMANY: Economy Ministry Downwardly Revises 2026 Forecast
Jan-28 13:41
The German economy ministry sees 2026 growth now at 1.0%, 0.3pp below the previous forecast for this year. The fiscal stimulus is seen to drive two thirds of German growth this year. 2027 growth is now seen at 1.3% (from 1.4%).
- On the 2026 revisions: "This is primarily due to a less favourable statistical carryover from the previous year as a result of economic development in the second half of 2025 being somewhat weaker than expected at the time. An economic recovery is still expected for 2026, driven primarily by stronger domestic economic momentum, accompanied by a slight easing of external economic pressures."
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EUROZONE DATA: ECB Survey Says Credit Terms To Tighten For Hedge Funds In Q1
Jan-28 13:32
The December 2025 ECB survey on credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and OTC derivatives markets (SESFOD) shows an expected credit conditions tightening especially in the hedge fund sector as well as higher demand for funding resulting in higher associated rates. Key highlights below:
- "Credit terms and conditions were expected to tighten in the first quarter of 2026, for all counterparty types but especially for hedge funds."
- "In tandem with a broad-based rise in demand for funding, financing rates increased noticeably across nearly all types of collateral."
- "Compared with last year, respondents’ ability to act as a market-maker in times of stress increased for derivatives, but decreased for debt, asset-backed, and convertible securities."
- "Price and non-price credit terms and conditions remained largely unchanged between September 2025 and December 2025, with a slight easing of price terms across most counterparties. This easing appeared to be primarily driven by general market liquidity conditions, competition from other institutions, and the financial strength of counterparties. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, some tightening of credit terms was expected across the board, but in particular for hedge funds. Tightening expectations were more pronounced for price terms than non-price terms."
- "Turning to financing conditions for secured funding, demand for funding increased across all collateral types, especially for domestic and high-quality government bonds. In parallel, financing rates/spreads increased for all types of collateral except asset-backed securities. In addition, the maximum amount and maturity of funding increased for all funding secured against debt instruments (not including convertible securities)."
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Senate Eyes DHS Deal To Avert Shutdown
Jan-28 13:28
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- President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will deliver remarks at an event for Trump Accounts at 11:00 ET 16:00 GMT.
- At 10:00 ET 15:00 GMT, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify to Congress on Venezuela.
- The FOMC will announce its next interest rate decision at 14:00 ET 19:00 GMT. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his first presser since warning of a Trump pressure campaign to influence monetary policy.
- Republicans and Democratic senators will hold caucus lunches at 12:30 ET 17:30 GMT as they try to navigate a standoff over DHS funding that has raised the risk of a government shutdown on Friday.
- Ambassador to China David Perdue said business ties with China are improving.
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) warned of a recession if the Trump administration allowed New York's Gateway Tunnel project to halt next week.
- A Virginia judge ruled that Democrats would not be able use a favourable map for the state at November's midterms.
- Senate negotiators said a bipartisan bill to revive Obamacare subsidies could be released in the coming days.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney rejected Treasury Secretary Bessent's claim that he had walked back his Davos speech.
- Trump warned Iran would face an attack “far worse” than last year’s strike on nuclear sites if it refused to negotiate a new nuclear deal.
- Chart of the Day: Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since May 2014.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
