POWER: Power Summary at European Close: CWE January Power Holds Onto Losses
CWE front-month power has been holding onto losses amid windy, mild weather at the start of January, shrugging off a recovery in European gas and carbon allowances. Nordic front-month power futures have ended the session higher with a downward revision in Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balances.
- Nordic Base Power JAN 25 up 2% at 53 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power JAN 25 down 4.6% at 101.9 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power JAN 25 down 3.7% at 116.17 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 71.99 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0% at 47.715 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has erased earlier losses, holding onto gains seen last week as gas transit via Ukraine looks set to halt at year end. Putin said Thursday it would be impossible to arrange a new transit contract before year’s end, when the current agreement expires.
- EU ETS December 2025 has reversed earlier losses to trade higher on the day, supported by a recovery in EU gas prices.
- Germany’s Bnetza approved the construction of 1,400km of new power lines in Germany this year, which is a new record.
- EdF has extended the unplanned outage at the 1.495GW Civaux 1 nuclear reactor by five days until 5 January.
- The unplanned outage at 1.33GW Flamanville 2 has been extended until 31 December 12:00 CET, compared with 30 December 23:00CET previously scheduled.
- The 880MW Bugey 5 nuclear reactor is offline for 24h until 31 December 15:00CET.
- France awarded a total of 38 solar PV and onshore wind projects in the latest tender round for a total capacity of 500.6MW according to the French Ministry for Ecological Transition.
- The French government has selected two winners in the sixth offshore wind tender for the construction and operations of two 250MW floating offshore wind farms in the Mediterranean.
- Poland is ready to increase electricity exports to Ukraine is Slovakia decided to cut off emergency power supplies to Ukraine, a Polish senior official said.
- Emeren Group has signed a 7-year PPA to supply power from a solar farm in Poland to the Polish subsidiary of a multinational consumer goods business.
- The outage at the 1GW EstLink 2 interconnector won’t affect energy supplies in the Baltic countries and Finland, Estonia’s climate minister, Yoko Alender, and Fingrid said.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Mode
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 96.090 @ 15:41 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 95.760 - Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Having hit a fresh pullback low at 95.760 across the global rates sell-off in recent weeks, the market found bottom and has staged a shallow bounce above the 96.00 handle. Nonetheless, recent weakness confirms the downside bias, with support undercutting at 95.750 below ahead of major support of 95.480. For any corrective recovery to take hold, markets need to retake the 96.00 handle on a closing basis.
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4287 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4005 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 1.3965/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3858 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6604/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6534/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:03 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6534, the 20-day EMA.
