POWER: Poland Nov Continues Upward on Coal, Emissions
Poland’s front-month power contract continued to climb from the previous session on 24 Oct to settle just below its price on 12 Sept, with the contract supported by sharp gains in EU ETS and European coal. Gains were limited on the day as temperatures in Warsaw are expected to remain above the 30-year norm until at least 2 Nov, ECMWF shows.
- Poland NOV 24 baseload power settled at PLN441.80/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN439.83/MWh on 23 Oct, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE. The contract failed to eclipse the 12 Sept high at PLN441.90/MWh to end just slightly below.
- EUA DEC 24 up 3.2% at 66.98 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal NOV 24 up 1.8% at 120 USD/MT at 14:41 BST
- The contract opened at PLN444/MWh and had a choppy session, reaching as high as PLN445.50/MWh in the middle of the session and as low as PLN441.50/MWh towards the end of the session.
- The NOV 24 power contract has traded 39 times for 40MW, down from 54MW exchanged in the previous session.
- Temperatures in Warsaw are now anticipated to remain above the seasonal norm at least 1-2 Nov, latest ECMWF forecast shows – likely weighing on delivery costs.
- Early next week, wind in Poland is anticipated at 1.50GW on 28 Oct (Mon), up from 1.40GW estimated for 27 Oct, ECMWF shows. However, with typically rising demand delivery costs could still be supported. Wind will then drop to just 0.542GW on 29 Oct – likely lifting prices further.
And an unplanned outage at the 242MW unit 5 at the 1.89GW Polaniec coal plant occurred due to emergency repairs, with the unit anticipated to end works late on 25 Oct.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'24 5Y Buy
- +5,000 FVZ4 110-04.5, buy through 110-04.25 post time offer at 0932:00ET, DV01 $221,000. The 5Y contract trades 110-03.75 last (-5.25).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5818.12 0.50 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 8 minor price swing
- RES 2: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5797.50 High Sep 19
- PRICE: 5786.25 @ 14:19 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 5668.73 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5615.51 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains in play and last week’s gains reinforce the current bullish condition. The contract has traded through a key and major resistance at 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Sights are on the 5800.00 handle next. First key support is 5615.51, the 50-day EMA. Initial support lies at 5668.73, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES: E-Minis A Little Higher Heading Into Cash Open
E-mini futures are 0.18-0.29% higher, with the NASDAQ 100 leading and the S&P 500 lagging at the margin.
- The latest Chinese monetary stimulus package supported global equities overnight, before Israel signalled an intensification of its attacks on Hezbollah, knocking futures away from best levels.
- Contracts have recovered into the cash open.
- Technically, a bull cycle in S&P 500 e-minis remains in play and last week’s gains reinforce the current bullish conditions.
- The contract has traded through key resistance and the bull trigger at the July 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Sights are on 5,800.00 next.
- The DJIA is set to register another fresh record high when cash markets open, although the S&P 500 may not manage to do so, at least on the open.
