POWER: German Afternoon Renewable Forecast

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX)

• The MA structure is very similar in the Nasdaq index.
• MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, however, the Aug 5 sell-off has resulted in a break of the 200-day EMA. A clear break is still required and price will need to remain below EMA and extend lower to highlight a more important medium-term reversal threat.
• The 200-day EMA currently lies at 17919.38. A key support has also been defined at 16973.94, the Apr 19 low. The area between these two price points represents a key support zone.

Short-Term Considerations

• Both Indices are oversold and a recovery would allow this condition to unwind.
• Key resistance is seen at:
  • SPX: 5425.40 - the 50-day EMA
  • NDX: 19298.07 - the 50-day EMA
• The 50-day EMA is an important resistance where a break would highlight a bullish development and a potential resumption of the primary uptrend.

A steep and impulsive bear cycle has dominated price action in the equity space. This has confirmed a bearish short-term trend condition. A look at longer-term charts highlight some important technical considerations.

S&P 500 Index (SPX)

• Looking at MA studies, the medium and long-term trend remains up. In the chart attached, the 200-day EMA - a long-term trend identifier - maintains a positive slope and for now at least, price continues to trade above this average.
• Furthermore, the 20- and 50-day EMAs are in a bull-mode set-up - 20 day EMA above the 50-day EMA. This relationship highlights the medium-term trend structure.
• The chart also highlights an important support - the Apr 19 low of 4953.56.
• A clear break of the 200-day EMA and support at 4956.56, would be regarded as an important bearish development.
• The last time price tested support at the 200-day EMA, was Oct-Nov 2023. This example illustrates an additional key technical feature - if price is unable to remain below the EMA once breached, a false break is likely to lead to a resumption of the uptrend.
• While support holds, there is a strong likelihood that the recent steep drop in price is part of a fast correction.