AUDUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal

• RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
• RES 2: 96.685 - 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing 
• RES 1: 96.615 - High Sep 12  
• PRICE: 96.445 @ 20:13 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 96.435/96.280 - Low Sep 3 / Low May 15 (cont.)  
• SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
• SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24

Aussie 3-yr futures are trading lower and the contract is approaching the Sep 3 low of 96.435. A break of this level would negate the recent short-term bullish theme. This would signal scope for an extension towards 96.280, the May 15 low on the continuation chart. The short-term resistance to watch is 96.615, the Sep 12 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

SOFR/Treasury options segued from mixed/calls to better low delta puts trade in the second half as underlying futures extended session lows after Chicago Fed Goolsdbee's hawkish statements in FT interview. Additional caution ahead Thursday's heavy data drop: Personal Consumption, GDP, Durables/Cap Goods, and weekly claims. Projected rate cut pricing drifts off early morning levels (*): Oct'25 at -23.1bp (-23.2bp), Dec'25 at -42.9bp (-44bp), Jan'26 at -54.2bp (-55bp), Mar'26 at -65.6bp (-66.5bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +6,000 SFRV5 96.50 calls, 0.75 vs. 96.33/0.08%
  • +10,000 SFRX5 96.87/97.12 call spds, .25 ref 96.32
  • Block, 5,000 SFRX5 96.37/96.50 call spds, 2.75 ref 96.33
  • +3,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.50/96.62 call flys, 2.75
  • -10,000 SFRZ5 96.68/96.75 call spds, cab
  • +5,000 0QX5 95.87 puts, cab ref 96.965
  • +4,000 SFRF6 96.62/96.75 call spds 1.75 over 96.12/96.25 put spds
  • +5,000 SFRH6 97.25 calls, 3 ref 96.535
  • 2,250 SFRH6 96.12/96.18 put spds vs 96.62/96.75 call spds
  • 8,750 0QZ5 96.68/96.87 2x1 put spds ref 96.975
  • 6,000 0QX5 96.87/97.12 strangles ref 96.98
  • 3,000 SFRZ5 96.62 puts ref 96.975
• Treasury Options:
  • 15,000 TYV5 113 puts, 23 ref 112-20.5
  • +15,000 TYX5 111/112 put spds 1 over 114 calls
  • 9,000 TUX5 104.25/104.38/104.5/104.62 put condors
  • -14,000 TYX5 112/113.5 strangles, 42 ref 112-22
  • 3,000 USZ5 113 puts, 48 ref 116-15
  • 2,500 TYZ5 111/112 put spds 16 ref 112-24.5
  • -1,500 TYV5 112.75 puts, 6 ref 112-30/0.35%
  • 1,250 TYV5 112.25/112.5/112.75 put trees, 5 ref 112-24
  • over 15,000 TYZ5 114 calls, 31 last (another 116k traded Tue, OI +64.9k to 229.3k)
  • 2,500 TYV5 112.5 puts, 3 (total volume over 6.6k)
  • 2,000 TYV5 113/TYX5 111.5 put spds ref 112-28
  • over 7,200 wk1 TY 112.25 puts, ref 112-28 (exp 10/3)
  • 3,000 TYZ5 113.5/114 call spds ref 112-29
  • -2,000 TYX5 114/TYZ5 114.5 call spds ref 112-30 (Dec over)

• Stocks held at/near Wednesday session lows in late trade, profit taking evident ahead of Thursday's heavy economic data and continued Fed speaker schedule. Currently, the DJIA trades down 163.42 points (-0.35%) at 46128.6, S&P E-Minis down 24.25 points (-0.36%) at 6690.75, Nasdaq down 78.3 points (-0.3%) at 22494.57.
• Materials, Technology and Communication Services sector shares underperformed in the second half. Materials weighed by Freeport-McMoRan -16.08% after down-revising their third-quarter projections, DuPont de Nemours -2.65%, Smurfit WestRock -1.39%.
• Tech stocks drew additional profit taking in the second half: Synopsys -4.71%, Jabil -3.97%, Oracle and Adobe both declined -2.86%, while Electronic Arts -3.30%, Take-Two Interactive Software -2.67% and TKO Group Holdings -2.62% weighed on the Communication Services sector.
• On the positive side, Energy and Consumer Discretionary sector shares continued to lead gainers, oil and gas stocks buoyed the former as crude prices climbed higher (WTI +1.43 at 64.84): EQT Corp +4.18%, Phillips 66 +3.45%, APA Corp +2.86% and Expand Energy Corp +2.79%.
• Discretionary sector shares supported by Tesla +3.66%, Lululemon Athletica +3.13%, eBay +2.59% and Ross Stores +2.43%.