EU TRANSPORTATION: PostNL: Kretinsky Stake
Sep-25 10:37
The CoC (at par) on both the €31s and new bond are standard and has no carve-out/exemption for Kretinsky. It is triggered if:
- if more than 50% of shares OR voting rights are acquired AND
- rating is downgraded into HY by any one agency OR if already in HY a 1-notch downgrade
Relevant stakes of Kretinsky includes recently bought out IDS, recently bought out Metro AG (food wholesaler with 25% sales in delivery) and 10% in #2 UK grocer, Sainsbury.
A fully debt funded takeover could double leverage to low 4x handle - though both of Kretinsky's recent takeovers were funded to keep IG ratings.
A takeover could also unlock valuable synergies for Kretinsky: both IDS (through GLS) and Metro AG operate in the Bennelux region. He is already doing so with Sainsbury/IDS by utilising former to add more parcel locker locations.
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STIR: Holding Dovish Tilt Seen After Latest Trump-Cook Headlines
Aug-26 10:27
- Fed Funds implied rates have been held lower overnight by Trump saying he had removed Fed Governor Cook with immediate effect late yesterday.
- The dovish shift has been pared somewhat with help from Cook again since pushing back, saying he has no authority to fire her and she won’t quit.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 20.5bp Sep, 33.5bp Oct, 53.5bp Dec, 67bp Jan and 81.5bp Mar.
- SOFR implied yields are up to 3bp lower on the day (SFRM6) whilst the terminal yield is 2.5bp lower at 3.02% (SFRH7). The latter unwinds half of yesterday’s 4.5bp increase as it remains close to recent dovish extremes, having closed at 3.00% after Powell on Friday.
- Dallas Fed’s Logan (’26 voter, hawk) yesterday said she anticipates use of the Fed’s rate ceiling tools in September amidst room to reduce reserves. She added that the Fed should explore ways to avoid overemphasizing the median view on the FOMC in projections.
- NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) late yesterday reiterated that the era of low neutral rates “appears far from over” echoing NY Fed research that he had co-authored published earlier in the day.
- Ahead, Richmond Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) repeats a speech from Aug 12 on the economy at 0830ET. It will be followed by audience questions but there won’t be a livestream.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar:Durables/Cap Goods, Regional Fed, 2Y Note Sale
Aug-26 10:20
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/26 0830 Richmond Fed Barkin expected to repeat speech on economy from Aug 12, will take audience Q&A).
- 08/26 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-10.3, --)
- 08/26 0830 Durable Goods Orders (-9.4%, -3.8%), ex-trans (0.2, 0.2)
- 08/26 0830 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-0.8, 0.2%), Ship (0.3%, 0.2%)
- 08/26 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (-0.2%, -0.1%)
- 08/26 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-0.34%, -0.20%), YoY (2.79%, 2.09%)
- 08/26 1000 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (-20, 11), Business Conditions (-8, --)
- 08/26 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (97.2, 96.5)
- 08/26 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (2.0, --)
- 08/26 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
- 08/26 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction (91882CNV9)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Support Remains Intact
Aug-26 10:15
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support to watch lies at 6304.76, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from last Friday’s high is for now, considered corrective. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5373.59, the 50-day EMA.
