EQUITIES: Post-CPI Gains Reinforce Bullish Theme for E-Mini S&P
A corrective bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5369.48, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, the contract has recovered above the 20-day EMA - a bullish development for now. A stronger reversal would open 5445.00, Aug 26 high. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Thursday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has once again traded to a fresh cycle high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6600.00 handle where a break would strengthen the bull theme and open 6673.37, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6481.60, the 20-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 395.62 pts or +0.89% at 44768.12 and the TOPIX ended 12.73 pts higher or +0.4% at 3160.49.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 4.711 pts or -0.12% at 3870.598 and the HANG SENG ended 301.84 pts higher or +1.16% at 26388.16.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 72.18 pts or -0.3% at 23631.21, FTSE 100 higher by 23.92 pts or +0.26% at 9321.38, CAC 40 down 40.44 pts or -0.52% at 7783.08 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 20.44 pts or -0.38% at 5366.33.
- Dow Jones mini down 96 pts or -0.21% at 46043, S&P 500 mini down 12 pts or -0.18% at 6580.75, NASDAQ mini down 21.5 pts or -0.09% at 23996.25.
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COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain Weak After Break of Bear Trigger
WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. Gold traded lower at the start of the week, but last week's strength returned prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal is within close proximity to support at $3334.75, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.61 or -0.97% at $62.56
- Natural Gas down $0 or -0.04% at $2.807
- Gold spot up $12.28 or +0.37% at $3360.53
- Copper down $0.3 or -0.07% at $458.25
- Silver up $0.58 or +1.53% at $38.507
- Platinum up $5.85 or +0.44% at $1349.45
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Trading at Fresh Cycle High
The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices has held, with the Eurostoxx 50 future still above the 50-day EMA. Additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, recent impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. E-mini S&P prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6371.43 and is at a fresh cycle high. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6249.46, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 556.5 pts or +1.3% at 43274.67 and the TOPIX ended 25.54 pts higher or +0.83% at 3091.91.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 17.547 pts or +0.48% at 3683.465 and the HANG SENG ended 643.99 pts higher or +2.58% at 25613.67.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 186.73 pts or +0.78% at 24210.64, FTSE 100 higher by 14.64 pts or +0.16% at 9162.17, CAC 40 up 31.86 pts or +0.41% at 7785.39 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 42.05 pts or +0.79% at 5378.2.
- Dow Jones mini up 86 pts or +0.19% at 44644, S&P 500 mini up 11 pts or +0.17% at 6479.5, NASDAQ mini up 60.25 pts or +0.25% at 23998.
BTP: Block Trades in 2yr and 10yr
ouple of Italian 2yr and 10yr Block trades, it looks closely weighted and could be a flattener.
- BTSU5 ~2.34k sold at 107.76.
- IKU5 1k bought at 121.12.
