GILTS: Positioning In Futures Little Changed During Wednesday Rally

Retail sales growth slowed to 6.7% Y/Y in the week ending February 21 compared with 7.2% the week prior, per the Johnson Redbook index. But this still kept month-to-date sales tracking 6.8% going into the last retail week of the month, which would mark the joint-highest since 2022.

• We still don't have release dates for the Census Bureau's January or February retail sales reports, which will be closely watched after December's very weak figures.
• Y/Y Census control group came in at a  16-month low 3.4% in December, vs a 6.8% rise in Redbook, so there is a clear gap forming between the two.
• Indeed in contrast to solid Redbook readings, data out last week showed real goods sales pulled back sharply in Q4 (-0.1% Q/Q annualized, just the second negative quarter since January 2023; and down 0.1% Y/Y in December, the first such decline since March 2023), with overall private consumption supported by sustained if slowing services spending (3.4% annualized in Q4).
• The Redbook report comments: "Retailers said President's Day sales early in the week helped clear out leftover winter inventories, but did not boost overall sales much. Pricing and promotions were the main drivers of business. With most schools and offices closed on Monday, President’s Day, and mild weather in many areas, demand for spring clothing and other seasonal items increased, especially in warmer regions. Discount stores that offered fewer promotions saw mixed results. Several traditional brick-and-mortar retailers will report their financial results this week and next. As the fourth-quarter earnings season wraps up, many retailers are dealing with widespread store closures."

• MNI: US REDBOOK: FEB STORE SALES +6.8% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +6.7% WK ENDED FEB 21 V YR AGO WK

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