THAILAND: Poll: Pita Preferred PM, But Shinawatra's PT Leads In Party Vote

May-03 08:05

The latest opinion poll from NIDA ahead of the 14 May legislative election shows centre-left progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat leading in the 'preferred prime minister' stakes. However, the populist Pheu Thai (PT) of Paethongtarn Shinawatra leads in polling both at the constituency and party list level.

  • NIDA poll: Preferred Prime Minister: Pita (MFP): 37% (+15), Paethongtarn (PT): 30% (-8), Prayut (UTN): 15% (+1), Sretta (PT): 7% (+1), Sudarat (TST): 2% (-2). +/- vs. 3-7 April 2023. Fieldwork: 24-28 April 2023. Sample size: 2,500
  • NIDA poll: Constituency vote: PT: 39% (-10), MFP: 35% (+13), UTN: 12% (+1), DP: 4% (-1). +/- vs. 3-7 April 2023. Fieldwork: 24-28 April 2023. Sample size: 2,500
  • NIDA poll: Party-list vote: PT: 38% (-10), MFP : 36% (+14), UTN: 13% (+1), DP: 3% (-2). +/- vs. 3-7 April 2023. Fieldwork: 24-28 April 2023. Sample size: 2,500
  • The PT has bled significant support in recent weeks, and Paethongtarn's return to the campaign trail following the birth of her second child could prove crucial in boosting her party's flagging support.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Estoxx put spread buyer

Apr-03 07:58

SX5E (21st April) 4000/3800ps, bought for 5.0 in 5k

GILTS: Bear flattening as oil price moves higher

Apr-03 07:47
  • The announcement of the cuts in oil output by OPEC+ has seen gilts move lower, largely in line with other core fixed income this morning. The curve has bear flattened as more hikes from the BOE are priced in.
  • 2-year yields are up 8.6bp at writing with 10-year yields up 6.4bp.
  • Pricing for the May MPC meeting is at 19bp (down from an intraday high of 21bp but up from the 17.5bp Friday close). The terminal rate has also moved up to a cumulative 46bp by September (from Friday's close of 41bp).

BUNDS: Through new intraday low

Apr-03 07:44
  • Some downside continuation in Bund, but on lighter volumes, which helps exacerbate the moves.
  • Next support is seen at 135.08.
  • Higher Oil and Corp issuance are keeping the lid on the contract.