ISRAEL: Political Paralysis At An End As Netanyahu Bloc Wins Big
Nov-02 12:11
Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looks set for an emphatic return to power following Israel’s 1 November legislative election. With 97% of the votes counted, projected seat totals from the Times of Israel have the pro-Netanyahu bloc of parties with 65 seats, ahead of the 61 required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset (parliament).
- Following years of political paralysis, with five elections in under four years, a relatively comfortable majority for Netanyahu could presage a period of stability. However, Netanyahu still has an ongoing fraud trial to contend with, that while not grabbing headlines as it once did could still cause trouble for the presumptive PM further down the line.
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK-Israeli Political Paralysis At An End As Netanyahu Bloc Wins Big.pdf
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BONDS: What's driving moves over the past hour?
Oct-03 12:09
- Core fixed income continues to hit new highs - there is little explanation for the moves.
- Most are pointing to North Americans getting to their desks about an hour ago - and reversing the late month-end induced sell-off while also reacting to the news of the UK government's U-turn on the 45% tax rate.
- However, it also appears as though the moves were triggered by Schatz / Bunds before impacting USTs and gilts, so the stories don't fully fit...
- TY1 futures are up 0-20+ today at 112-22+ with 10y UST yields down -12.2bp at 3.710% and 2y yields down -12.6bp at 4.155%.
- Bund futures are up 1.26 today at 139.75 with 10y Bund yields down -9.3bp at 2.012% and Schatz yields down -10.9bp at 1.637%.
- Gilt futures are up 1.83 today at 982.23 with 10y yields down -14.3bp at 3.942% and 2y yields down -25.8bp at 3.941%.
CANADA: USDCAD Clears Overnight Lows With Firmer Equities
Oct-03 12:02
- USDCAD clears overnight lows, currently 1.3725 in a pullback from Friday’s fresh cycle high of 1.3838 in a move helped by e-mini S&P moving off cycle lows.
- The technical trend remains higher, with initial resistance at that 1.3838 after which lies a Fibo projection of 1.3896, and indeed the 2Y yield differential re-opening at -41bp after Friday’s closure continues to offer little downward momentum. Support at 1.3603 (Sep 28 low).
- Data: Mfg surveys headline the session with PMIs (final for US) and then the US ISM.
US EURODLR FUTURES: Approaching Friday Highs In Continued Reversal
Oct-03 11:42
- EDs hit session highs across the curve, with +0.065-0.08 gains from the red pack onwards in a further unwinding of late Friday’s sharp cheapening, now nearing last week’s highs especially around EDZ3.
- Unclear on exact driver of latest moves higher unless delayed impact with US coming in to European moves, but it sees a pulling forward for peak implied yields to equal in EDZ2-EDH3, followed by ~25bp of cuts through EDZ2/EDZ3, holding last week’s reversal of the initial post Sep FOMC flattening.
- Bostic (’24 voter) kickstarts proceedings but potentially limited impact (opening remarks, Sep 28 he favors a 75bp hike in Nov, 50bp in Dec to a moderately restrictive 4.25-4.5% year-end), before ISM mfg headlines the session.
