POLAND: Poland To Unveil Response After Hungary Grants Asylum To Fugitive Off'l
Dec-20 07:42
- Poland threatened retaliatory steps after Hungary offered asylum to fugitive ex-Deputy Justice Minister and sitting opposition lawmaker Marcin Romanowski. The official fled after a court issued an arrest warrant over alleged corruption and fraud. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called Hungary's decision a "hostile act toward Poland and the European Union" and said that the government will unveil its response today.
- Radio Zet reported that US President Donald Trump could visit Poland on May 3 (the Constitution Day). The date was described as "possible" by unnamed representatives of US business circles and sources close to the Polish government.
- Higher Education Minister Dariusz Wieczorek handed in his resignation after a series of scandals inspired pressure from the public and his party's coalition partners.
- A senior Finance Ministry official told Bloomberg that Poland will likely kick off its FX-denominated debt issuance next year with an euro bond sale as "US dollar issues have slightly lost their appeal compared to the euro market in 2024."
- Statistics SA will release November retail sales data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET.
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USD: Demand is emerging
Nov-20 07:36
- The Dollar was mostly flat overnight against most G10s, worst early performers were JPY (-0.49%), CHF (-0.20%), NZD (-0.15%).
- As we noted going into the European Govie Cash open, the Yen extended its losses versus the Greenback, following the reversal in Bond futures, similar to EGBs, US Tnotes has also fully reversed Yesterday's safe haven rally, pushing Yield higher in early trade, albeit still within the last few session's ranges.
- TYZ4 and Yesterday's low is being testing, but so far holding at 109.19, and the Yen has extended losses, now down 0.53%.
- The other early mover has been the Pound, with Cable gaining 33 pips following the UK CPI beat, but the Currency has lacked traction, and is fading a few pips here.
- Small resistance in Cable is seen at 1.2720, but better is seen at 1.2768.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Outlook Remains Bullish
Nov-20 07:27
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5974.25/6053.25 High Nov 15 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5952.00 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 20
- SUP 1: 5855.00 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 5834.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The latest move lower in the S&P E-Minis contract appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to monitor is 5834.60, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 6053.25, Nov 11 high.
UK DATA: Inflation data marginally higher overall, maybe worth 2-4bp for SONIA
Nov-20 07:26
- Overall, this data can be viewed as marginally higher than expected. But there shouldn't be too much in the way of changes to monpol expectations.
- As we noted after the testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee yesterday we don't see a near-term domestic macro driver that can really change the course of quarterly cuts for at least February and May. And then it will be the re-setting of annual services CPI prices as well as the strength of wage growth that will determine the pace of cuts.
- Following the Budget there is too much uncertainty from the employer NIC increase and the NLW (national living wage) increase, which we are concerned could see inflation linger higher than the BOE's forecasts for longer.
- In terms of market reaction, GBPUSD is around 25 pips higher than prior to the data and we would expect a bit less to be priced into the SONIA curve on the open (may 2-4bps less of cuts over the next 6 months or so.
- Another key event will be Ramsden's speech on monpol at 16:00GMT.
