POWER: Poland October Power Edges Higher

• RES 4: 113-23   76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
• RES 3: 113-07   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off 
• RES 2: 112-23   High May 1 
• RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-04 @ 14:29 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16        
• SUP 2: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11
• SUP 4: 109.25   Low May 27

Treasury futures spiked sharply on the CPI print, hitting 112-06 before fading into the close. Despite the intraday reversal off highs, the bullish theme persists, supported by the clearance of the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high, on the NFP reaction. Prices remain toward the upper-end of the range, keeping the May 1 high at 112-23, the next upside level. Clearance here opens retracement levels layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. First support lies at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.   

US Cash Equities are set for a new record highs in the SPX, NDX and the Dow, a 25bps Fed cut in Sept fully priced.

Yesterday's high in SPX was at 6446.55, NDX at 23,849.50, and Dow 44,497.59.

• Calls: SPX: 6,469.3 (+0.4%); DJIA: 44,642 (+0.4%/+183pts); NDX: 23,951.5 (+0.5%).

MNI’s inflation breadth tracker shows disinflation overall continuing to stall in Germany in July: 

• Looking at the low-inflation categories, the percentage of ECOICOP items printing at or below 1% Y/Y was unchanged at 40% while the percentage in high-inflation categories (above 5%) also declined marginally from 15% to 14%.
• The 1-3% range offset this, rising from 24% to 25% although there was still 21% in the 3-5% range, with the latter technically at its highest since February and slightly above the 19% averaged over the past year.