POWER: Poland October Power Edges Higher
Poland’s October power base-load contract edged up for Thursday’s delivery, with small gains in the energy complex and neighbouring markets.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.5% at 75.91 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 1.3% at 32.73 EUR/MWh
- Rotterdam Coal OCT 25 up 0.6% at 94.3 USD/MT
- The Polish October power base-load OTC contract edged up to PLN416/MWh, from PLN415/MWh in the previous session, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- Liquidity for the contract decreased to 7 lots in 6 transactions, from 34 lots done in 28 transactions the previous day.
- EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are edging higher, rebounding from yesterday’s sharp decline, supported by a trend higher in EU gas, with TTF rising amid ongoing supply disruption risks.
- TTF front month is steady today but near its low for the week after falling back from a high of €33.44/MWh on Sep.10. Seasonal maintenance in Norway is set against strong wind forecasts next week amid ongoing Russia sanctions uncertainty.
- The latest ECMWF two-week weather forecast for Warsaw suggests mean temperatures will remain above normal until mid-next week before turning cooler. Mean temperatures are forecast to fall well below normal around 22-24 September.
- Wind output in Poland is forecast at 1.61-4.26GW during base-load hours next week.
- Planned maintenance at the 430MW Lagisza B10 coal plant has been extended by one day to end on 16 September.
- The 474MW Patnow B9 power plant is scheduled to be offline in an unplanned outage over 13-21 September.
- The 630MW Plock power plant will also be fully disconnected over 19-27 September.
- Planned works at 833MW Opole 6 are still scheduled to end on 21 September.
- In the day-ahead market, the Polish sport power index increased to PLN505.14/MWh, up from PLN457.92/MWh in the previous session.
- Wind output in Poland is forecast at 749MW during base load on Saturday and at 1.08GW on Sunday, from 1.54GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
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