US FINANCIALS: PNC 3Q25
PNC delivered a solid quarter, with rising pre-provision earnings, stable asset quality, strong ROTCE. 3Q NIM declined, though, from an increase in interest-bearing commercial deposits.
- PTAX Pre Provision earnings of $2.4B +8%, (9M of $6.8B+14%)
- Asset quality remains strong: 0.22% NCO and 0.65% NPL stable to declining YTD. ACL of 1.61% brought down 4 bps YTD.
- NII of $3.6B +7% Y/Y (9M also +7%)
- Fee income of $2.1B up ~ 9% Q/Q and Y/Y
- NIM 2.79% down 1bp driven by commercial IBD that grew +7%, driving total IBD up 1 point to 79% of deposits. 9M NIM of 2.79% up 19bps Y/Y.
- Loans growth in C&I (+2% QQ, +7% YY), while Consumer flat to down
- ROTCE 16.8%, CET1 10.6%
- Office CRE of $5.4B is <2% of total loans, had a Criticized ratio of 58% with NPL of 20%. PNC has been managing down its Office CRE portfolio over the last few years.
4Q25 outlook: loans flat to up Q/Q, NII up 1.5%, fee income down 3% on record 3Q capital market activity. FirstBank acquisition close still expected early 2026
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EUROZONE DATA: August Indeed Wage Tracker Steady, More Interest In ECB Series
Eurozone posted wage growth eased back to 2.55% Y/Y in August, after 2.67% in July and 2.55% in June (with small upward revisions seen to prior months) according to the latest Indeed wage tracker. That meant 3m Y/Y growth was broadly steady at 2.59% Y/Y (vs 2.56% prior).
- As we have noted in recent months, the Indeed wage tracker’s usefulness as an indicator has declined since the ECB started publishing its own forward-looking negotiated wage tracker. Additionally, there remain some questions marks around the robustness of the data, particularly with Italy registering a supposed fourth consecutive month of 0% posted wage growth. The Eurozone-wide sample also remains dominated by observations in France.
- The ECB’s next wage tracker update will be released on Wednesday. At the September press conference, President Lagarde noted that “Forward-looking indicators, including the ECB’s wage tracker and surveys on wage expectations, suggest that wage growth will moderate further”.
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Extending Higher Again, Fresh ATH Attained
Gold is extending higher again, piercing last Tuesday's prior all-time high of $3,674, currently up 1% today at $3,679.
- A clear breach of last Tuesday's high would expose round number resistance at $3,700.
- Silver has also rallied over the past few hours, now up 1% on the session at $42.6/oz. Silver is testing resistance at $42,606 (2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing), with next resistance seen at $42.974 / $43.000
ITALY: Looking To Postpone Bank Tax Deduction In 2027
"*ITALY IS DRAFTING PLANS TO RAISE €1.5 BILLION MORE FROM BANKS" Bloomberg
"*ITALY'S GOVERNMENT EYES POSTPONING 2027 TAX DEDUCTION FOR BANKS" Bloomberg
