ASIA: PMIs Showing Trade War Strains in April
May-02 00:55
- A raft of PMIs were released this morning for Asian nations and it is hard not to suggest that the trade war and US tariffs have contributed negatively to the outcome for some.
- Indonesia’s PMI cratered to 46.7, it’s lowest result since August 2021 during a period where political uncertainty drove concerns as to the fiscal position for the country at the same times the US threatened sanctions. The result for Indonesia saw the fall from March’s 52.4 with the 5-year average at +51.5. Output collapsed to +44.3 (from 53 in March) and new orders were the lowest in 4 years
- Malaysia’s April PMI fell into contraction also, marking its lowest reading since late 2024 and the dubious honor of eleven straight months of contracting. April saw a decline to +48.6 from +48.8 in March. Output declined further to +47.4 from +48.4 whilst new orders rose relative to the prior month.
- The Philippines was the standout with April’s result of +53.0 its highest reading this year; with output jumping to +54.9 (from 48.7) and new orders higher relative to the prior month.
- Thailand’s PMI slipped into contraction in March and April saw a further decline at a time with the Bank of Thailand Governor warned that the impact of the trade war could be severely detrimental to the economy. April PMIs declined to +49.5 the lowest in a year yet there may be signs of stabilizing as output rose to +50.3 whilst new orders declined again.
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MNI: AUSTRALIA FEB BUILDING APPROVALS -0.3% M/M, +25.7% Y/Y
Apr-02 00:30
- MNI: AUSTRALIA FEB BUILDING APPROVALS -0.3% M/M, +25.7% Y/Y
MNI: AUSTRALIA MAR DWELLING APPROVALS -0.3% M/M
Apr-02 00:30
- MNI: AUSTRALIA MAR DWELLING APPROVALS -0.3% M/M
- MNI: AUSTRALIA MAR DWELLING APPROVALS +25.7% Y/Y
AUSSIE BONDS: Smooth Digestion Of May-34 Supply With Increased Demand
Apr-02 00:19
The latest round of ACGB May-34 supply sees the weighted average yield print 0.35bps through prevailing mids (per Yieldbroker), extending the recent trend of firm pricing at ACGB auctions.
- Additionally, today’s cover ratio of 3.9125x was significantly higher than the 3.61x seen at the previous auction.
- The strong bid came despite the current yield being 25bps lower than at the previous auction and 30-35bps below the November 2024 high.
- A steeper 3/10 yield curve, the steepest since January 2022, the line's inclusion in the XM basket and the resumption of positive sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds all likely contributed to today’s demand.
- Following the supply, the bond line and XM are little changed in early post-auction trading.
