ISRAEL: PM-'We Will Attack Anywhere In Lebanon Against Any Threat To Israel'

Mar-28 15:07

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made his first comments following the IDF airstrikes on Beirut earlier today. Netanyahu said, "Those who have not yet internalized the new situation in Lebanon received today another example of our determination. The equation has changed - what happened before the October 7 attacks will not be repeated. We will not allow firing on our communities, not even a drizzle. We will continue to vigorously enforce the ceasefire, we will attack everywhere in Lebanon against any threat to the State of Israel, and we will ensure that all our residents in the north return to their homes safely" 

  • Following the attack, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem's speech in commemoration of International Quds Day was cancelled.
  • The attacks in Lebanon appear at present unlikely to reignite the Israel-Hezbollah conflict on a significant scale. Nevertheless, given the breakdown of the ceasefire in Gaza in mid-March, even the potential for escalation will garner significant regional and international attention.
  • Indeed, Sayyed Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi rebels in Yemen said in earlier this week, “We have been following the Israeli attacks on various areas in Lebanon. These attacks are unjustified. [...] in any circumstance that requires us to intervene alongside our brothers in Hezbollah and the Lebanese people, we are prepared to do so.”
  • The US remains engaged in airstrikes against the Houthis, who resumed their targeting of Israeli vessels in and around the Red Sea following the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire. The strikes on Beirut could see this action escalate further. 

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Post-New Home Sales

Feb-26 15:07
  • Brief two-way flow as Treasuries maintain mildly weaker levels after lower than expected New Home sales for January, but large up-revisions to prior.
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 110-14.5 (-2), well inside technicals: resistance at 110-21 (High Feb 25), support below at 110-00 (High Feb 7 and a recent breakout point).
  • Curves flatter: 2s10s -1.972 at 17.692; 5s30s -1.583 at 40.802.
  • Cross asset: stocks moderately bid (SPX eminis +35.50 at 6005.25); Gold weaker (-11.71 at 2903.27), Crude steady (WTI at 68.93), Bbg US$ index firmer, near highs at 1288.39 (+3.71).

MNI: US JAN NEW HOME SALES -10.5% TO 0.657M SAAR

Feb-26 15:00
  • MNI: US JAN NEW HOME SALES -10.5% TO 0.657M SAAR
  • US DEC NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.734M SAAR

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

Feb-26 14:53
  • RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24 
  • RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24               
  • RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg 
  • RES 1: 0.6409 High Feb 21
  • PRICE: 0.6309 @ 14:52 GMT Feb 26
  • SUP 1: 0.6300/6231 Intraday low / Low Feb 10 
  • SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
  • SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
  • SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD is trading lower today. The latest pullback appears corrective, however, the pair has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6316. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6231, the Feb 10 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6402/14 - the 100-dma and 38.2% of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg respectively.