POLAND: PM Tusk Unveils Generous Fuel Relief Package

Domestic pipeline inflation pressures remain subdued, according to this morning’s January producer price data. For now, we still think some activity data sluggishness is required alongside lower-than-expected inflation to motivate another cut. However, this may cease to be the case if CPIF ex-energy outcomes diverge even more materially from the Riksbank’s projections in the coming months. 

• Relative to January 2025, the krona has strengthened 22% against the USD, 7.5% against the EUR and 7% against the NOK – this is clearly placing downward pressure on annual imported goods inflation metrics.
• The price index for domestic supply (which includes imported goods) excluding energy saw annual inflation of -2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.2% prior). This was the lowest rate since May 2016. 3m/3m momentum also remains negative at -0.2% (vs -0.5% prior).
• There were annual decelerations in both capital and consumer goods ex-food in January, the latter falling notably to -3.8% Y/Y (vs -2.4% prior).
• Meanwhile, food, beverage and tobacco domestic supply inflation eased to 0.6% Y/Y (vs 1.1% prior), the lowest since July 2024. A reminder that the temporary food VAT tax cut comes into effect from April – so food inflation signals appear soft even before accounting for this mechanical change.

• RES 4: $121.654 - High Jan 30 and key resistance 
• RES 3: $106.895 - Low Jan 29
• RES 2: $92.204/100.000 - High Feb 4 / Round number resistance
• RES 1: $91.246 - Intraday high      
• PRICE: $90.464 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: $72.020/64.098 - Low Feb 17 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $61.136 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing     
• SUP 3: $53.797 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Former key resistance area and major support 

Despite recent gains, a  bear threat in Silver remains present. The move lower since Jan 29 highlights an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. The metal has traded below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, and sights are on $61.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 92.204, the Feb 4 high. A break of it would highlight a stronger S/T bull cycle.

• ESTR vs ERU6 is bought for 13.5 in ~10.1k.

The interesting level looking at the chart is at 14, this is the Dec and Jan high and highest print since last April.