BOE: Pill At MNI Event: Inflation Path May Be Bumpier Than We Expect

Apr-13 13:06

Some highlight's from Pill's slides at the MNI Event now underway:

  • "CPI inflation rose to 10.4% in February, from 10.1% in January. This was a material upside surprise to our February MPR projection. Core inflation rose to 6.2 and services inflation at 6.6% was largely isolated to catering services. "
  • "We still expect CPI inflation to fall in Q2, as large rises in energy prices from last year drop out of the annual comparison, and to a lower rate than in the MPR projection following the announcements in the latest Government Budget to freeze the EPG and fuel duties."
  • "Recent releases serve as a reminder that the precise path of inflation may be bumpier than we expect."

Historical bullets

MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +2.8% V YR AGO MO

Mar-14 12:55



  • MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +2.8% V YR AGO MO
  • US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +2.6% WK ENDED MAR 11 V YR AGO WK

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Jun'23 10Y Sale

Mar-14 12:54
  • -7,417 TYM3 113-28, sell through 113-31 post-time bid at 0839:12ET. Futures have rebounded since, however, 114-04 last (-17).

STIR: Post-CPI Implied Hikes

Mar-14 12:50
  • With short end rate scaling back from Mon's highs, implied hikes inching higher after this morning's CPI read for February.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 20.3bp, May'23 cumulative 35.8bp to 4.943%, Jun'23 23.2bp to 4.817%. Small rate cut probability moves out to September, cumulative -8.0 at 4.503%.
  • Peak Fed terminal rate has climbed to 4.93 in May'23.