PERU: Petroperú Expected To Return To Profit This Year
Jan-22 13:08
- Petroperú is likely to have recorded a preliminary loss of $968mn in 2024, according to Chairman Alejandro Narváez quoted by Gestión. Looking ahead to 2025, Narváez estimated that Petroperú would achieve a net profit of $185mn, a positive EBITDA of $738mn and a market share of 38%. He said that January was giving excellent results, despite recent weather disruption and oil spill at a terminal of its Talara refinery, adding that the company would not have to ask for more money from the state ahead.
- After last week’s better-than-expected November activity data, the next key macro release will be January CPI inflation on Feb 1. Last month, annual inflation fell by more than expected to 1.97% y/y, opening the door for the BCRP to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 4.75%. Ahead of the next MCP meeting on Feb 13, analysts say that low inflation and solid external accounts should allow the central bank to move very cautiously towards neutral, although this will likely only equate to one or two additional rate cuts in the coming meetings.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Names Key Defense And Econ Nominees
Dec-23 13:04
- US President-elect Donald Trump delivered a wide-ranging 90-minute speech in Phoenix, Arizona on Sunday, doubling down on a new threat to bring the Panama Canal back under US control.
- Trump suggested he could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly after assuming office on January 20, repeating that resolving the war in Ukraine is “one of the things I want to do quickly.”
- Trump announced another round of executive branch nominations, including Stephen Miran to chair the Council of Economic Advisers – a three-member panel that advises the president on economic policy.
- Trump nominated Stephen Feinberg as Deputy Secretary of Defense and Elbridge Colby to serve as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Colby, a prominent China hawk, is likely to advocate Trump dedicate more military resources to the Indo-Pacific and lean on European powers to step up defence commitments.
- Rep. French Hill (R-AK), the incoming Chair of the House Financial Services Committee has been, “pushing for innovation in the banking sector for nearly half a century.”
- The Biden administration has scrapped plans for a mass cancellation of student debt, with Education Secretary Miguel Cardona acknowledging, “uncertainty around the implementation” of the proposals.
- The Biden administration has launched an investigation into Chinese-made "legacy" semiconductors that could result in additional tariffs on mature-technology chips.
- Poll of the Day: Swing-state voters have positive expectations about how a Trump presidency could affect their personal finances.
Full article: US Daily Brief
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Dec-23 13:00
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.30% (+0.00), volume: $2.330T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.28% (+0.02), volume: $849B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.28% (+0.02), volume: $817B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
GBP: GBP/USD Under Pressure Through NY Crossover as Yields See Support
Dec-23 12:41
The grind higher in US Treasury yields at the NY crossover is adding extra weight to GBP/USD, which has been ebbing lower slowly, but surely, over the European morning. The revision lower for Q3 GDP (down to flat for Q3) won't be helping, but the decline has been largely USD-led.
- The fade in the pair is still well clear of the Friday low, however prices are now back below the 1.2533 support - the 23.6% retracement for the post-Fed slip lower in the pair. Support seen more significant into 1.2476.
- EUR/GBP gains have put the cross back above the 0.83 handle. The overnight high at 0.8315 is just a few pips shy of the 0.8319 50-dma, which marks first resistance having been tested and containing prices on three occasions over the past week or so.
- US data is the sole event risk today - while building permits are unlikely to shake prices, prelim durable goods data for November could prove consequential, as well as the consumer confidence print for December.
