NETHERLANDS: Pension Reform Amendment Split Risks Coalition Instability

An amendment to the controversial Dutch pension reforms has failed following a close roll-call vote in the House of Representatives (for more on detail of the reform see 'SWAPS: Dutch Pension Reform Amendment Voted Down, EUR Curve Steepens', 1455BST). The amendment was backed by three parties from the coalition gov't: the NSC, the right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV), and the agrarian populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), as well as the Socialist Party, Party for the Animals, Forum for Democracy and DENK. 

• It was opposed by the fourth party in the coalition, the pro-business centre-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), as well as the centre-left environmentalist GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA), Democrats 66, the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), the Reformed Political Party, the Christian Union, Volt and Ja21
• These groups of parties each hold a combined 75 seats. However, with three pro-amendment lawmakers absent compared to two from the anti-amendment parties, the measure failed.
• The fight over the amendment risks deepening fractures in the uneasy coalition. The NSC's founder, Pieter Omtzigt, quit frontline politics in April, while the PVV has seen its support slump in recent months to the point where it is effectively evel with the VVD and GL-PvdA at the top of polls. The next election is not due until March 2028, but there is a declining likelihood that the current coalition will last the duration.
• Given the resurgence in support for the VVD, GL-PvdA, and the conservative CDA, any early election could return a lower chamber with a more cohesive, moderate majority at its centre.