OIL: Pemex Crude Production Falls to Lowest Since 1979
Mar-27 09:10
Mexico’s Pemex crude oil production fell to the lowest monthly level since 1979 to 1.55mbpd in February according to company data published on Monday cited by Reuters.
- Crude oil output remained well below the target set by outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of 1.9mbpd.
- February output fell 2.4% y/y, even with the unusual addition of condensate liquids counted towards the overall number which amounted to 276kbpd.
- Production has been on a gradual decline from a peak of 3.4mbpd two decades ago with new discoveries failing to offset the decline from aging oil fields.
- Crude processed at Pemex's six refineries rose 17% y/y producing 371kbpd of gasoline and 113kbpd of diesel during the first two months of this year.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread buyer
Feb-26 09:05
ERM4 96.50/96.75cs 1x2, bought the 1 for 0.75 in 2.5k.
USD: Gold higher, WTI lower
Feb-26 08:52
- No change in the Dollar, as we noted an hour ago, the SEK was leading and was up 0.16%, it is now up 0.19%.
- Overnight and into the European open, the Kiwi was down 0.48%, and an hour later, it is still down 0.48%.
- Lack of direction in FX, sees Gold firming to session high, while WTI had a test below $76.00 as desks fade expectations of early Fed rate cuts.
- Next support in WTI are seen at $75.50 (200d SMA), and $75.25 (50 day EMA).
SWEDEN: Moody's See Little Lasting Impact From Riksbank Recapitalisation
Feb-26 08:47
Moody's affirmed Sweden's sovereign rating at Aaa (outlook stable) on Friday.
- Moody’s wrote "the fiscal deficit will rise to 1.3% of GDP in 2024 from 0.3% of GDP in 2023, primarily because of the legal requirement (under the Sveriges Riksbank Act, which entered into force in January 2023) to restore central bank equity"…"Moody's expects that the deficit will moderate to 0.5% of GDP in 2025 as this equity injection is a one-off".
- More broadly they noted that "public debt remains low and highly affordable, and the government's balance sheet retains significant shock-absorption capacity".
- "Although the Swedish economy is currently experiencing a cyclical economic downturn and difficulties in the real estate market, this does not signal a structural weakening in economic potential given Sweden's highly skilled labour force and significant investments in innovation".
- "The recovery in private consumption will be slow as households rebuild buffers and engage in precautionary spending to better withstand any future period of interest rate hikes. External demand from Sweden's largest trading partners will be contingent on the pace of the euro area's rebound in 2024".
- The main domestic risk to the outlook was cited as "increased distress in the commercial real estate sector as well as an even sharper housing market correction".
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