EM LATAM CREDIT: Panama: Rising Debt/GDP – Negative

• -3,000 FVZ5 109-04.75, sell through 109-05 post time bid at 0738:00ET, DV01 $131,600.
• The 5Y contract trades 109-04.75 last (+3.25).

Reeves has wrapped up so UK attention now turns towards Dave Ramsden. He is due to appear as a panellist on the policy panel at the ECB / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025 Conference” on Monday 29 September. There is a live stream on YouTube here.

• Alongside him on the panel will be ECB Chief Economist Lane and the Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (2026 voting member).
• We place Ramsden as the most dovish member on the MPC who did not vote for a cut last week – and will be looking for confirmation of this at his appearance today.
• Markets price less than 1bp of cuts for the November MPC meeting and less than 5bp cumulatively by December. We think this is underappreciated the risk of quarterly cuts continuing. But we would September's dovish dissenters but Bailey, Breeden (who speaks tomorrow) and Ramsden to be on board for this to even be a possibility.

• -4,000 FVZ5 109-04.5, post time bid at 0727:30ET, DV01 $175,500.
• The 5Y contract trades 109-05 last (+3.5)