STIR: Overnight SOFR Option Roundup
- Better overall call volume overnight with underlying futures trading firmer in the short end firmer as markets anticipate 25bp hike from the FOMC on Wednesday.
- Block, 5,000 SFRM3 96.00/97.00 call spds, 20.5 ref 95.63
- 19,000 SFRJ3 95.18/95.43/95.68 call flys, 11.0 ref 95.64 to -.615
- 2,000 2QM3 96.68/96.87/96.93/97.12 call condors
- 2,000 SFRK3 95.00/95.502x1 put spds ref 95.70
- 5,000 SFRJ3 95.43 calls 55.5 ref 95.615 to -.645
- 4,000 SFRJ3 94.62/94.87/95.12 put flys ref 95.675
- 2,000 3QM3 97.50/98.00 call spds ref 97.03
- 4,500 OQJ3 96.75/97.00 call spds, ref 96.94
- 2,000 OQM3 98.00/99.00 call spds, ref 96.88
- 4,000 SFRM3 94.12/94.37 put spds vs. SFRN3 94.00/94.12 put spds
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USDCAD TECHS: Building Base for Recovery
- RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
- RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
- RES 1: 1.3537 High Feb 17
- PRICE: 1.3500 @ 16:25 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 1.3275/3262 Low Feb 14 / 2
- SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
- SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing
USDCAD traded higher again Friday, hitting the week’s best levels at 1.3537. This defies the view that the recent bounce was corrective, as the pair builds a base for further gains. The bull trigger is still someway off at 1.3705, but a weekly close above the 1.3500 would prove constructive. A break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and the bear trigger.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Late 10Y Sale
- -8,000 TYH3 112-00.5, sell through 112-01.5 post-time bid at 1527:48ET, 112-00.5 last (+4)
AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Nears Support
- RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6855 @ 16:24 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 0.6812 Low Feb 16
- SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
- SUP 3: 0.6755 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
- SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3
AUDUSD printed a lower low early Friday, putting prices through first support at 0.6856 to expose 0.6781. The broader uptrend remains intact for now, and the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
