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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: September FOMC Minutes, Fed Speak, 10Y R/O
Oct-08 10:25
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 10/08 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-12.7%, --)
- 10/08 0920 StL Fed Musalem welcome remarks
- 10/08 0930 Fed Gov Barr Community Banking Research Conf speech
- 10/08 1000 Chicago Fed Goolsbee open remarks payment conf
- 10/08 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
- 10/08 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CNT4)
- 10/08 1400 FOMC minutes for September meeting
- 10/08 1515 MN Fed Kashkari Center for Indian Country Development
- 10/08 1630 MN Fed Kashkari fireside chat with Senator Tina Smith
- 10/08 1745 Fed Gov Barr on community development
- 10/08 1915 Chicago Fed Goolsbee payment conf
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
STIR: Fed Rates Little Changed, FOMC Minutes Likely More Notable Than Fedspeak
Oct-08 10:23
- Fed Funds implied rates are 0.5bp higher overnight for most near-term meetings, holding within yesterday’s range.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.08% effective: 22bp Oct, 43.5bp Dec, 53.5bp Jan, 64.5bp Mar, 71bp Apr and 85bp June.
- SOFR futures also see small moves on the day: H6 with marginal losses (-0.005) otherwise small gains beyond including +0.015 through blues and yellows.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.045% (SFRH7, -0.5bp) is also within recent ranges, eyeing a little more than 100bp of cuts ahead.
- Today’s Fedspeak focus should be on the FOMC Minutes from the Sept 16-17 meeting. Last month’s meeting revealed a lack of conviction on the FOMC about the rate path forward in both the SEP and then Chair Powell’s press conference.
- The median voter marked down their end-2025 rate 25bps to 3.5-3.75% (i.e. two further cuts in addition to the 25bp cut last month) but 2 members look for 1 cut and 6 members don’t expect another cut this year (and 1 would have preferred not to have cut at all last month).
- Other scheduled Fedspeak looks unlikely to materially add to monetary policy discussions. Nevertheless, for completeness:
- 0920ET – Musalem (’25 voter, hawk) welcoming remarks at community banking research conference
- 0930ET – Gov. Barr (voter) keynote at community banking research conference (text only)
- 1000ET – Goolsbee (’25) opening remarks at Chicago Payments Symposium
- 1515ET – Kashkari (’26) speaks at Center for Indian Country Development
- 1630ET – Kashkari (’26) hosts fireside chat with Senator Tina Smith
- 1745ET – Gov. Barr (voter) speaks on community development
- 1915ET – Goolsbee (’25) speaks at payments conference (text only)
US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover Seen Tuesday
Oct-08 10:20
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU, FV & WN) and short cover (TY, UXY & US) as Tsy futures ticked higher on Tuesday.
- The most meaningful positioning swing came via the short cover seen in TY futures (~$2.4mln DV01), with the curve-wide net bias also tilted towards net short cover.
| 07-Oct-25 | 06-Oct-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,617,546 | 4,590,741 | +26,805 | +1,053,344 |
FV | 6,721,536 | 6,714,305 | +7,231 | +316,306 |
TY | 5,393,967 | 5,429,056 | -35,089 | -2,363,707 |
UXY | 2,460,836 | 2,462,153 | -1,317 | -119,098 |
US | 1,881,110 | 1,887,029 | -5,919 | -841,244 |
WN | 2,054,464 | 2,052,350 | +2,114 | +395,110 |
|
| Total | -6,175 | -1,559,289 |
