AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6989 High Feb 15
- RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 2: 0.6843 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
- RES 1: 0.6812 Low Dec 17
- PRICE: 0.6763 @ 15:56 GMT Mar 1
- SUP 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 01
- SUP 2: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6585 Low Nov 21
AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of both the 200-dma and 100-dma, reinforces bearish conditions and note too that the pair has cleared trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 2022 low. The focus is on 0.6629, the Dec 20 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is at 0.6843, the former trendline support.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up
- RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 1: 0.7142 High Jan 26
- PRICE: 0.7078 @ 16:23 GMT Jan 30
- SUP 1: 0.6994/6958 Low Nov 24 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6836 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
AUDUSD remains firm and is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high. This has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a move to 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA - it intersects at 0.6958.
CANADA: USDCAD Holding Push Higher Ahead Of Data, Central Bank Flurry
- USDCAD is hovering near 1.388 having pushed to session highs of 1.3389 (+0.6%) against a backdrop of USD strength ahead of a flurry of data/central banks.
- The earlier ~20 pip recent move higher was somewhat limited to FX space but is more recently supported by a further move lower in e-mini S&P.
- Can-US yield diffs marginally more favourable for CAD on the day (2YY GoC +7bp vs +5.5bp) but not enough to move the dial.
- Still some headroom for USDCAD before next resistance at the 20-day EMA of 1.3434, whilst support remains overnight lows of 1.3300. Tomorrow sees US ECI and MNI Chicago PMI plus CAD monthly GDP before the Fed kickstarts the central bank decisions Wed.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup, Pared, Vol Buyers
Rather muted volumes Monday covered mixed wing buyers (SOFR call and put flys, 5-, 10- and 30Y wings pared, vol buyers via strangles) ahead this Wed's FOMC policy annc (25bp hike widely anticipated).
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRJ3 95.31/95.43 call spds, 1.25
- 1,500 SFRN3 95.12/95.31 5x4 put spds
- Block, +20,000 SFRU3 94.62/94.87 put spds, 4.5 ref 95.22
- +10,000 SFRZ3 94.68/94.93/95.18 put flys, 3.25 ref 95.55
- 1,500 SFRZ3 97.00/97.50/97.75 put flys
- 2,100 OQH3 95.37/95.62 put spds ref 96.00
- Block, total 20,000 SFRZ3 97.00/98.00 call spds, 4.0
- Block/screen, 17,000 SFRZ3 97.00/97.50/98.00 call flys, 1.5 ref 95.57
- 3,000 SFRK3 95.25/95.37 call spds ref 95.105
- 2,000 SFRH3 95.06/95.12 2x1 put spds ref 95.16
- Treasury Options:
- 2,000 TYJ 113/TYH3 113.5 put spds, 3
- 2,000 FVH3 110.5/111.25 call spds, 7 ref 109-08
- 5,000 TYH3 111/112 put spds ref 114-16
- 1,300 TYK3 115 straddles
- 2,700 TYH3 112/116 strangles, 27
- 5,000 FVH3 107.75/108.25/108.75 put flys
- 4,500 TYH 112.5/116 strangle. 32
- 1,500 TYH3 113/116 strangles 38 ref 114-14
- 4,000 USH3 126/128 put spds, 32 ref 129-28
- 2,000 USH3 121/124 put spds 10 ref 129-16
- 9,500 TYH 114 puts, 45 ref 114-11
- 3,500 TYH3 117.5 calls, 6 ref 114-13.5
- 2,000 FVH3 110.5/111.25 call spds, 7 ref 109-08
- 5,000 TYH3 111/112 put spds ref 114-15 to -16
