OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Pullback In Gold
Oct-09 10:53
- On the commodity front, the latest short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2690.2, a 2.618 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2615.7, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The 50-day EMA lies at $2547.4.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started Oct 1. Tuesday’s reversal is for now, considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm support to watch is $71.41, the 20-day EMA.
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US TSY FUTURES: OI Points to Mix Of Short Cover & Long Setting On Friday
Sep-09 10:47
The combination of Friday’s rally and preliminary OI data points to long setting in the wings of the curve (TU & WN), along with net short cover in FV through US futures.
- The latter dominated in net curve terms.
- A reminder that all Tsy contracts finished off highs.
| 06-Sep-24 | 05-Sep-24 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,285,446 | 4,261,315 | +24,131 | +960,874 |
FV | 6,369,895 | 6,409,649 | -39,754 | -1,772,015 |
TY | 4,682,164 | 4,751,921 | -69,757 | -4,702,639 |
UXY | 2,094,007 | 2,106,499 | -12,492 | -1,169,788 |
US | 1,705,351 | 1,706,919 | -1,568 | -218,896 |
WN | 1,694,760 | 1,679,074 | +15,686 | +3,477,911 |
|
| Total | -83,754 | -3,424,553 |
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put fly buyer
Sep-09 10:46
ERX4 95.87/95.75/95.62p fly, bought for 2.5 in 2k.
FOREX: Analyst Views on Short-Term JPY Trajectory
Sep-09 10:41
- *JP Morgan: While they ultimately see a scenario in which global growth continues to be a headwind for cyclically-oriented currencies and softer US labour markets continue to pressure yields, JPM maintain that short cross-JPY is a viable medium-term trade. But the ambiguity of the NFP release and the potential perceptions of a quicker Fed easing cycle despite the labour market not breaking can provide a short-term reprieve for high-beta, and so JPM continue to run their barbell strategy and its suite of long-JPY trades (vs USD, EUR, CHF) and long-Scandi trades (NOK, SEK vs EUR).
- *Goldman Sachs continue to stress the most recent backdrop for JPY outperformance looks unsustainable without an imminent US recession or at least more rapid cuts from the Fed, neither of which is their base case. Now, a slowing US economy and somewhat higher odds of recession make being long Yen a more attractive hedge than it has been in a long time and probably limits the scope for upside in USD/JPY, but Goldman’s more sanguine macro forecasts suggest that the cross should be drifting back higher.
- On net, Goldman Sachs remain less constructive on the Yen unless the Fed outlook changes and would caution that any tactical longs would be particularly vulnerable to an upside surprise in US data.
