EM LATAM CREDIT: Orbia: 3Q 2025 Earnings - Neutral

Summing up the highlights of Monday's busy Fed speaker list, it was three of the most hawkish-leaning members on the Committee, alongside the biggest dove:

• New Fed Governor Miran unsurprisingly argued for significantly lower policy interest rates in his first prepared remarks (link) since being appointed to the Board, calling current rates "very restrictive". It's not often that a day bringing a Fed Governor's call for swift 200bp of cuts (seeing the "appropriate" Fed funds rate "almost 2 percentage points lower than current policy") delivers a shrugged off market reaction - but It's clear Miran is seen as an outlier on the Committee and it was known from last week that he was the lowest "dot" in the latest Dot Plot.
• St Louis Fed President Musalem (2025 FOMC voter, hawk) says he supported the 25bp cut in September as a "precautionary move" "because recent data indicate that the downside risks to employment have increased relative to the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target", however he calls for a cautious approach to easing because "I see a risk that above-target inflation could be more persistent than is desirable".
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-2025/non-2026 FOMC voter) appears to have stuck to his pre-September Fed meeting outlook for just 1 cut this year, telling the WSJ in an interview that "I had one cut for this year. I didn't say the timing for that. So this could easily be the one cut. And so for that, I'm fine with it. I think moving forward, the data is going to be really important and here's what I would say. Forecasting is really hard these days and so I still have one cut down for the year. So that would be it."
• Cleveland Fed President Hammack (hawk, 2026 FOMC voter) sounds extremely cautious about making further cuts: "I am laser focused on inflation. And that's why to me, I think that we should be very cautious in removing monetary policy restriction, because I think it's important that we stay restrictive to bring inflation back down to target." She says she she has "one of the highest estimates" of the neutral rate on the Committee, and thinks policy is only "very mildly restrictive after last week's move", so a "very short distance to neutral". She's very likely one of the highest 2025 dots (possibly the 7 seeing no further cuts this year as of September), and, we would guess, one of the 6-8 highest submissions for end-2026 (who saw 3.6 or 3.9% rates). The three highest longer-run dots on the FOMC are 3.6%, 3.75%, and 3.9%, each of which was selected by one participant.

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The week's busy post-September FOMC speaker schedule continues Tuesday with 3 of the 12 current FOMC voters scheduled to give remarks.

• We summarize Monday's largely hawkish-leaning commentary in a subsequent note. While implied rate cuts were briefly pared following cautious comments from Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic, and moved in a more significant way after comments by St Louis's Musalem, the latter appeared to be part of a broader market move and not triggered by his typically cautious outlook.
• October entered Monday's Fedspeak still seen as a ~90% implied chance of a 25bp cut, that was little changed on the day; the 44bp through year-end was pared to closer to 43bp, and the 90bp of easing through Q2 2026 narrowed to about 87bp.
• That's about the current state of play as we await today's speakers, with data (Philly Fed and Richmond Fed regional activity surveys, PMIs, current account) also bearing attention.

In chronological order today:

• Chicago's Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) speaks at around 0830ET on CNBC at at 1530ET on ABC. His rate outlook is a bit of a wild card: historically a dove, he voted for the 25bp cut last week but that wasn't seen as a certain thing going into the meeting. He said prior to the meeting that while FOMCs in the fall are "going to be live", he didn’t offer much in the way of overt support for a rate cut in September. Even after the August payrolls data, he expressed discomfort with recent trends in inflation, saying “I want to get more information. I am still undecided as we are going into this” - though August inflation data may have given him enough peace of mind to support a cut. Going into today's commentary, we wouldn't be surprised at him being in line with the September Dot Plot median supporting 2 further cuts in 2025, or 1 further cut, or even no further cuts.
• Gov Bowman speaks on the Economic Outlook at 0900ET with moderated Q&A. It's clear she wrote down 75bp of cuts for 2025 in the September Dot Plot (including last week's 25bp), putting her at the median (which has moved in her dovish direction since her dissent in favor of a cut at the July meeting). She doesn't typically talk much about her rate views but it will be interesting if we get more color on her view for the 2026 outlook, and whether she has considered a more aggressive easing path in line with new Gov Miran (see below).
• Atlanta's Bostic (non-2025/2026 FOMC voter) speaks at 1000ET in a live podcast interview. See next note for the commentary he delivered Monday.
• Chair Powell speaks at 12:35ET on the Economic Outlook. This obviously will be closely watched though typically a Fed Chair appearance merely days after the FOMC press conference with no major data in the interim typically translates into "nothing new". In theory he may speak a little more on his own behalf than he would at the FOMC presser when he's expected to deliver the Committee's overall view, though we believe he was at the Dot Plot median for 2025 rates at 3.6%; there is also expected to be moderated Q&A which is likely to be more interesting than his prepared remarks.