HUNGARY: Orban Meets Turkey’s Erdogan Following Talks with Trump, Putin
- Prime Minister Viktor Orban meets Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as part of the government’s self-proclaimed “peace mission”.
- Orban met US President-elect Donald Trump on Monday and held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday. Orban and Putin discussed ways of resolving the conflict in Ukraine. A Kremlin spokesman said Orban didn’t deliver any messages from Trump to Putin.
- There are no other major data releases scheduled for today, or for the remainder of the week. Local focus therefore turns to the final NBH meeting of the year on Dec 17 where no change to the base rate is the likely outcome.
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BONDS: US Tnotes tests Yesterday's low
- US Tnotes (TYZ4) is making an attempt at Yesterday's printed low of 109.25+, but better support is seen towards 109.14, followed by 109.07, the November low.
- The early price action is pushing the Tnotes/Bund spread 3.7bps wider, and eyeing a test at last Week's high of ~202.7bps, while most Desks will look for initial resistance more towards 205.00bps.
- Block trade also goes through in the in 5yr, suggest seller:
- FVZ4 ~4.9k at 106.22+.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.4185 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3951 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 1.3851/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3757 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD is trading higher and sights are on the most recent trend peak of 1.3959, the Nov 1 / 6 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and confirm a clear breach of key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This would signal potential for a climb towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high and a key medium-term resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3843, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 0.6841 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6727 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6676/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7
- PRICE: 0.6550 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 0.6513 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Last Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in a breach of 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. This week’s move down reinforces the bearish theme. Sights are on 0.6490, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm resistance is at 0.6676, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would highlight a possible reversal.
