GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt opening calls, 100.01/100.04 range.
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GILTS: Opening calls
Desks note that Gilt futures are netting at 97.65, accounting for today's 0.125% Mar-39 linker supply.
STIR: de Guindos Has Little Impact On ECB Pricing; Lane Eyed Next
ECB implied rates are little changed this morning, with ECB-dated OIS showing 44bps of easing through the remainder of this year.
- Comments from ECB VP de Guindos (covered earlier) did not shift September pricing, with OIS already pricing an ~80% implied probability of a 25bp cut through that meeting,
- De Guindos’ emphasis on projection meetings echoes comments from June 18 after the first cut of this year was delivered earlier that month.
- Remarks from ECB’s Lane at 0800BST/0900CET provides the next focus point. On June 17, Lane noted that every ECB meeting was “live”, but that we wouldn’t know enough about services inflation by the now-passed July meeting.
- Euribor futures are flat to -2.0 ticks through the blues, seeing similar price action to Bunds overnight/this morning.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-24 | 3.473 | -19.1 |
| Oct-24 | 3.411 | -25.3 |
| Dec-24 | 3.229 | -43.5 |
| Jan-25 | 3.138 | -52.6 |
| Mar-25 | 2.977 | -68.7 |
| Apr-25 | 2.891 | -77.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.737 | -92.7 |
| Jul-25 | 2.664 | -100.0 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Stable Above Lows
- RES 4: 5786.66 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5764.00 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: 5741 34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: 5721.25 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 5601.50 @ 07:50 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 5542.00 Low Jul 19
- SUP 2: 5486.11 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5398.75 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
The broader trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the slip lower into last week’s close appears to be a correction. The recent rally to cycle highs confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5741.34, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is at 5486.11 the 50-day EMA.
