UK DATA: ONS Identifies Error With April Y/Y Inflation Data
From the ONS: "An error has been identified in the Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) data provided to the ONS by the Department for Transport, which is used to calculate consumer prices inflation. The incorrect data overstate the number of vehicles subject to Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) rates applicable in the first year of registration.
This has the effect of overstating the headline Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and Retail Prices Index (RPI) annual rates by 0.1 percentage points for the year to April 2025 only. No other periods are affected. In line with our consumer prices revisions policy, these statistics will not be amended. However, we are reviewing our quality assurance processes for external data sources in light of this issue.
The ONS will be using the correctly weighted data from May 2025’s figures onwards, meaning no further statistics will be affected.
The ONS apologises for any inconvenience caused."
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EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 165.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.84 @ 07:15 GMT May 6
- SUP 1: 162.38 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 161.69 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. The recent print above key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28. This would open 164.90 next, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.69, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull cycle.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- PRICE: 120.10@ Close May 5
- SUP 1: 119.60/119.33 Low Apr 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9
BTP futures remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The recent break of a key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high, reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.33, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.
BRENT TECHS: (N5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15
- RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $64.46/67.38 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: $59.43 @ 06:44 BST May 5
- SUP 1: $58.00 -Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $67.38. Initial resistance is at $64.46, the 20-day EMA.
