AUSTRIA AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

Retail sales growth picked up in the final week of October to 5.7% Y/Y from 5.2% prior, per the Johnson Redbook index. This kept October's sales at +5.4% Y/Y, same as the month-to-date figure estimated for the prior week albeit slightly below retailers' targeted 5.6% gain.

• The report notes that "the past week saw an increase in customer traffic and sales, primarily driven by demand for Halloween merchandise. However, the holiday may have negatively impacted shopping patterns on Friday, a key day for retailers, by diverting customers away from stores while boosting sales at those catering to Halloween shoppers."
• There will be more detail on October sales out this Thursday  with the Johnson Redbook Same-store Flash Report based on stores' reported sales for the month that are out that day. For now Johnson Redbook is targeting 6.2% Y/Y sales growth in November, noting " This month features several significant shopping promotions, including those around Election Day, Veterans Day, and Thanksgiving."
• Overall October retail data look to have been solid, between Redbook's figures and Chicago CARTS' preliminary estimate of ex-auto sales equivalent to a 4.3% Y/Y rise in ex-auto sales gains for a 2nd consecutive month (though of course we don't yet have official September data let alone October due to the federal government shutdown).

• MNI: US REDBOOK: OCT STORE SALES +5.4% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.7% WK ENDED NOV 01 V YR AGO WK

• In light of there being no JOLTS report for September from the BLS today due to the ongoing government shutdown, we take another look at the latest daily job openings data from Indeed, provided with a 7-day rolling average up until Oct 26.
• These openings suggest there was a sizeable 2.4% decline through September since end-August (the latest period we have for JOLTS openings), before a steadier decline thereafter for a cumulative 3.1% drop in almost two months.  
• Analysts estimated 7.13mn for what would have been JOLTS job openings in September, a 1.3% decline from 7.23mn in August, with Indeed openings a little more pessimistic. [Note the 12 analyst estimates for today’s ‘release’ vs closer to 30 responses usually]
• These daily openings are at their lowest since 2021, although indexing them to pre-pandemic levels with JOLTS job openings they’re roughly consistent with JOLTS figures. A further decline ahead would be more notable.
• Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday wasn’t overly concerned about the labor market at Wednesday’s press conference as part of remarks aimed at instigating some uncertainty over a December rate cut. Talking on some areas that can be watched during the government shutdown: “The labor market is a place where we get, for example, we get the state level data on initial claims, which are sending sort of a signal of more of the same. We also get job openings, and we'll get lots of survey data, we'll get the Beige Book and things like that. So we'll have a -- we'll have a picture of what's going on in the labor market. And the fact that we're not seeing an uptick in claims, or a downtick really in openings, suggests that you're seeing maybe continued very gradual cooling, but nothing more than that. So that does give you some comfort.”