US DATA: Empire Starts Oct Manufacturing Data On Solid Note (And Firm Prices)
Oct-15 12:51
The NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey handily beat expectations with a headline General Business Conditions reading of 10.7 in October (-1.8 expected, -8.7 prior), starting the month's regional Fed manufacturing readings on a strong note (albeit accompanied by higher inflation pressures).
This was the 2nd highest reading since November 2024 and came after an unexpected pullback in September to a 3-month low. It brings the overall reading back into typical mild expansionary territory (5-year lookback z-score of 0.7).
The subindices were also solid: New Orders to 3.7 after -19.6 prior, Employment to a 3-month high 6.2 after -1.2 prior, and Shipments to 14.4 after -17.3. And there was optimism evident in the 6-month outlook of 30.3, up from 14.8 prior for a 9-month high, with forward-looking expectations for New Orders and Shipments markedly higher.
Along with the better activity however came stronger price pressures: current prices paid rebounded to 52.4 from 46.1 prior (which had been a 7-month low), with expected prices paid 6-months ahead rising to 65.0 from 57.8 for a fresh 5-month high.
Notably, current prices received jumped to 27.2 from 21.6 for a 6-month high, suggestive of manufacturers passing along input price increases (6-month-ahead prices received ticked up 0.6 points to 43.7 also for a 6-month high, suggesting those increases are expected to be sustained).