OIL: Oil Up Strongly on Venezuela Orders
- Oil spiked in Wednesday morning trade in Asia as President Trump said he was ordering a 'total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers' going into and leaving Venezuela.
- "Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America," Trump wrote on social media Tuesday. "It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before (per BBG)
- Trump said he was also designating the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as a "Foreign Terrorist Organization" according to his Truth Social post.
- WTI was up +1.52% this morning on the news to US$56.02 before falling back and stabilizing at US$55.96.
- Today's moves is one the largest one day jump since the beginning of December.
- The latest move by the US administration is a major escalation against Venezuela, the holders of some of the largest oil reserves on the planet.
- Brent is up by +1.33% to US$59.61 as it moves back above oversold on the 14-day Relative Strength Index.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUD: Asia-Pac: AUD/USD Drifts Lower As USD/ASIA Extends Higher
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6512 - 0.6537 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6520, -0.30%. The AUD/USD has drifted lower in our session being led by the move higher in USD/Asia. The AUD/USD tested the 0.6500 area on Friday but bounced into the weekend with US stocks. The AUD/USD looks a little lost and is chopping around in a clearly defined range. Bitcoin gapped lower on the open but has since recouped all its losses moving back above $95k, the moves in crypto have recently been leading the market but for this to get legs it would need to break below the pivotal $90k area to add to the current market malaise. The AUD/USD has basically traded 0.6350-0.6650 since April this year and we will need a catalyst for this to break, otherwise it looks like more of the same unfortunately.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6525(AUD394m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6400(AUD913m Nov 18), 0.6550(AUD674m Nov 20), 0.6600 (AUD679m Nov 18) - BBG
- The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 39 Points
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
BONDS: NZGBS: Cheaper But Best In $-Bloc, Nov Cut Hopes Stable
NZGBs closed showing a modest bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 1-2bps higher.
- Today’s move leaves the 2/10 yield curve around cycle highs, the highest since 2021.
- NZGBs outperformed their $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials 1-2bps tighter.
- “On average, respondents believed there was a 38% chance of finding a new job, down from 41.2% in 3q and the lowest since the survey began in 1q 2022.” - RBNZ via BBG
- “October selected prices update presents no obstacles to another rate cut from the RBNZ at next week's policy meeting, said Westpac in a report on Monday. Westpac has revised its forecast for December quarter inflation to +0.3% and +2.8% for the year to December, both down 0.1 percentage points from the bank's earlier forecast.” - BBG
- Swap rates closed 2-3bps higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 25bps of easing is priced for November, with a cumulative 34bps by February 2026. Pricing has been relatively stable over the past month. (see chart)
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Non-Resident Bond Holdings.
Bloomberg Finance LP
US TSY FLOWS: BLOCK SELL FVZ5
SELL 3500 of FVZ5 traded at 109-05, post-time 13:53:36 AEDT (DV01 $149,331). The contract is currently trading at 109-05, +0-01 from closing levels.
