CANADA: Oil Slide Weighs Further On Already Lagging CAD

Jun-08 16:02

The slide in WTI, now down more than 4% intraday, weighs further on CAD having already been under pressure the day after modestly outperforming with the BoC’s hike and with a further hit from continued extensive wildfires.
* USDCAD lifts 20pips to ~1.338 and CAD is now bottom of the G10 FX pack.
The pair remains below yesterday's pre-BoC levels though and resistance is not seen until 1.3492 (20-day EMA).

Want to read more?

Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:

May-09 15:50

Cash Tsys have pushed to session lows, led by the front end for a minor bull flattening with 2Y yields +3.3bps to 4.035% for highs since last week’s JOLTS downside surprise. Most of the rest of the curve sees yields +1-1.5bps aside from 20s moderately outperforming.
No clear headline driver for the latest shift, but it’s come with Fed Funds implied rates also lifting although it doesn’t wildly change the path: 3bp implied hike for Jun, 21bp of cuts for Sep and a cumulative 66bp of cuts to 4.42% for year-end.
Ahead, NY Fed’s Williams (voter) speaks including text at 1205ET to the Economic Club of NY, followed by the 3Y auction at 1300ET. Later on, congressional leaders discuss the debt limit – no official time but we hear circa 1600ET.

May-09 15:44

NOK the poorest performer in G10 through the London close, prompting USD/NOK to recovery back above the 50-dma and partially reverse four consecutive sessions of losses.
Moves come ahead of tomorrow's April CPI release, with markets expecting the CPI-ATE Y/Y measure to slow to 6.1% from 6.2% prior. The figure has beaten expectation in 3 of the 4 releases so far in 2023, with persistent underlying inflation a key factor in the Norges Bank's decision to continue their tightening cycle (expected to peak at 3.75% I.e. 50bps further hikes into H2 this year).
The weakness for the NOK is key here, with sell-side consensus for inflation being revised higher to accommodate for the weaker currency. As such, a higher than expected inflation release Wednesday will result in further upside pressure on rate path projections for the June meeting - potentially tipping the assumed peak rate closer to 4.00% this year.

May-09 15:36

New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):

* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 5.08%, no change, volume: $111B

* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 5.06%, no change, volume: $281B

Federal Funds volumes edge $1B lower for technically the lowest since Apr 23.

Source: New York Fed

MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-BOJ's Kameda Sees April Hike

Apr-03 08:04

MNI: China's Steel Futures To Rise Before Falling In Q2

Apr-03 00:49

MNI US Macro Weekly: The Macro Winds Of War

Apr-02 19:04