CROSS ASSET: Oil Rebound Curbs Risk Sentiment, USD Up From Earlier Lows

Bitcoin had a range over the weekend of $70,406.31 - $71,990.88, Asia is currently trading around $72450, +1.05%. The market continues to hold up pretty well considering the risk back drop, consolidating around the $70k area. It looks to be finally finding some consistent demand on a $60k handle as it continues to attempt to form a decent base from which to test the $75-$80k resistance. Technically it remains in a bear trend but a sustained break above the $75k-$80k area would potentially reverse that. I think we continue to do some work on a $70k handle first and suspect we will chop around between $60k-$80k for a while. A sustained break above $80k though and the Market can start thinking of a potential move higher again. Strategy has again been active adding to their already very large longs, so no sign of capitulation for now.

• Milk Road on X: “Strategy just bought $1.28B worth of $BTC in a single week. 17,994 coins. ~2,570 per day. STRC is the vehicle making this possible. Strategy raises capital from investors via their preferred stock offering, converts it to bitcoin, and repeats. It's a closed loop. No friction. No committee meetings. No waiting for board approval. They built a machine with one job: buy $BTC, don't stop.”
• “Total holdings: 738,731 $BTC. - Average cost: $75,862 per coin. - 3.5% of all supply that'll ever exist.”
• The above strategy works until it doesn't, the famous saying probably applies "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." For now though Bitcoin continues to hold in there and these longs will be hoping for it to get back above the $80k area. Below $60k and the losses on that size of a position will mount catastrophically.
• Bitcoin’s Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: $2,285 

Fig 1: Bitcoin spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

US Treasuries are having their customary morning rally Monday as per recent trends.   With the trend during the US trading day for higher yields, last week saw a stronger morning each morning, led by a sell off in the morning.   This is possibly attributed to profit taking by Asia based investors on overnight positions.  

Bond futures are up though failed to kick on from the gains at the open.  TYH6 is up +05 at 111-18, well below all major moving averages.  The modest gains today have seen TYH6 veer away from oversold on the 14-day relative strength index . 

• The 2-Yr is down -0.8bps at 3.711%
• The 5-Yr is down -1.2bps at 3.847%
• The 10-Yr is down -1.6bps at 4.263%
• The 30-Yr is down -1.5bps at 4.892%

From a data perspective, key out Monday will be Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production MoM, CAP Utilization, Housing market index and business investories.  

There is a US$89bn 13-week and a US$77bn 26 week auction.  

• China's data dump today painted a decent start to the year with Industrial Production up, retail sales beating expectations and fixed asset investment expanding for the first time since August last year.  
• Industrial Production expansion has averaged +5.8% over the last 3-Yrs and February's rise to +6.3% was the best result since July 2025.  Manufacturing rose to +6.6% from +5.7% and electricity output up to +4.7% from +0.8% with the biggest single expansion from Food Production - likely on account of lunar new year.
• Retail Sales topped estimates (of +2.5%) at +2.8% but remain down on the prior month due to Lunar New Year distortions.  
• The biggest surprise was the Fixed Asset Investment (ex rural) which saw a huge surge from state owned enterprises to +7.7% (from -2.5% prior) resulting in an expansion of +1.8% - likely reflecting government led iniatives to support growth.  
• Leading into the NPC there were mounting expectations for an imminent RRR cut.  These have now been postponed with the next potential being May.