OIL: Oil Rangebound on Thin Holiday Trading
Oil prices edged higher on Monday on thin trading and a lack of any meaningful drivers and prices remain rangebound.
- Brent FEB 25 up 0.2% at 74.35$/bbl
- WTI FEB 25 up 0.3% at 70.83$/bbl
- China's PMI factory survey is due on Tuesday while the U.S. ISM survey for December is set to be released on Friday, both offering oil markets some direction.
- China has issued at least 152.49 million metric tons of crude oil import quotas to independent refiners in a second batch for 2025 so far according to Reuters sources on Monday.
- Algorithmic traders on Monday flipped to a net-long position in Brent crude after being short since mid-October, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group.
- Money managers reduced net long Brent crude positions in the week to Dec. 24 but remain above levels seen through most of the period between August and November, according to the ICE Commitments of Traders data.
- Crude curve backwardation continues to strengthen, since the OPEC+ output hike delay, with Jun25-Dec25 rallying to the highest since August suggesting tight supplies.
- Available capacity at U.S. oil refiners is expected to decrease by 108,000 bpd in the week ending Jan. 3, IIR Energy said on Monday.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Mode
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 96.090 @ 15:41 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 95.760 - Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Having hit a fresh pullback low at 95.760 across the global rates sell-off in recent weeks, the market found bottom and has staged a shallow bounce above the 96.00 handle. Nonetheless, recent weakness confirms the downside bias, with support undercutting at 95.750 below ahead of major support of 95.480. For any corrective recovery to take hold, markets need to retake the 96.00 handle on a closing basis.
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4287 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4005 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 1.3965/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3858 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6604/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6534/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:03 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6534, the 20-day EMA.
