OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Diesel Cracks Strengthen
Diesel cracks have gained some ground today, supported by colder weather likely boosting gasoil heating demand, coupled with a forecasted US stock draw last week.
- US gasoline crack down 0.6$/bbl at 15.34$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 30.85$/bbl
- US inventory change forecasts - Gasoline (bbl): -0.747m (bbg), 0 (WSJ): Distillates (bbl): -1.505m (bbg), -1.7m (WSJ): Ref runs (percentage point change): -0.32 (bbg), -0.3 (WSJ)
- Gasoline prices are likely headed higher in the weeks ahead as the impact of refinery maintenance and outages,
- Chinese refiners have been buying higher volumes of Brazilian and WAF crude grades due to sanctions disruptions as well as higher pricing on Middle East grades Vortexa tracking shows.
- Chinese crude imports from Brazil could hit 800 kbd in Feb based on projections, an 8-month high.
- Russia’s 150k b/d Syzran oil refinery, operated by Rosneft, suspended oil processing Feb. 19 due to a fire at the primary unit following a drone attack, Reuters said.
- TotalEnergies had a temporary malfunction on an unspecified unit of its Gonfreville refinery in northern France, according to a community alert.
- Russian oil product exports have declined in the first 15 days of February, with shipments dropping to 2.3m b/d, 8% below January’s average: Vortexa.
- Port of Fujairah oil product inventories fell 1.5% in the week ended Feb. 17, according to FOIZ data.
- South Korean refiners can secure enough light sweet US crude throughout 2025, despite India's strong interest the barrels, according to Platts.
- Asia’s naphtha crack weakened Feb. 19 after outright price increases were outpaced by rises in underlying crude, according to Reuters.
- Global implied passenger jet fuel demand is set to rise 1.4% this week, according to BNEF.
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UK: Gov't Rejects Unionist Calls For Pulling 'Stormont Brake'
The UK gov't has confirmed that it has rejected a request from unionist parties in Northern Ireland to invoke the post-Brexit 'Stormont brake'. The 'Stormont brake' permits members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) at Stormont to object to EU laws if they see them as having a "significant impact specific to everyday life of communities in Northern Ireland in a way that is liable to persist". A motion from the hardline unionist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was backed by all unionist MLAs claiming that changes to EU rules on packaging and labelling of chemicals would have a "significant and prolonged" impact in Northern Ireland and that they would not be required in the rest of the UK.
- Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Hillary Benn, in a letter to Speaker of the Assembly Edwin Poots, said that the new rules did not reach the threshold for implementing the brake.
- DUP leader Gavin Robinson said the decision was 'wrong' and 'utter foolishness.' As Sky News reports, "If the brake had been pulled, there would have been unprecedented and intensive talks between the UK and EU, and possibly a vote on the rules applying in Stormont. It would undoubtedly have torn the scab off some of the old Brexit wounds, at a time when Sir Keir Starmer's government has much more pressing matters to attend to. It didn't happen this time…but it's unlikely unionists will be deterred from trying again in the future."
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21
- RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8474 High Jan 20
- PRICE: 0.8454 @ 16:46 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 0.8403/8355 Low Jan 16 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8336/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Monday. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for stronger short-term gains. Recent resistance points at 0.8376, the Nov 19 high, and 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, have been breached, strengthening the current bullish theme. Sights are on 0.8494 next, the Aug 26 ‘24 high. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8336.
COMMODITIES: Crude Declines As Near-Term Tariff Fears Ease, Copper Falls Further
- Crude has lost ground today amid news that Trump will stop short of imposing tariffs immediately upon taking office, coupled with the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire have added pressure.
- WTI Feb 25 fell by 1.7% to $76.6/bbl.
- In his inauguration address, President Trump said that the US will fill its strategic reserves again and export American energy all over the world.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish, with attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open $80.63, a Fibonacci projection.
- On the downside, a further decline would expose the 20-day EMA, at $74.80, a key short-term support.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has edged up by 0.2% to $2,709/oz, with the yellow metal trading in a tight range through much of the session.
- Gold continues to hold on to its recent gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. Eyes remain on $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance.
- On the downside, initial support is at $2,653.4, the 50-day EMA.
- In contrast, copper has fallen by 1.2% to $432/lb today, leaving the red metal 3.5% below Friday’s high.
- Copper futures remain in a bull cycle, despite the latest pullback. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA and last week’s gains resulted in a move through key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high, opening $452.85, the Nov 5 ‘24 high.
