OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Product Stockpiles in Europe’s ARA Region: Insights Global
Mar-28 15:17
The latest oil product stockpiles in independent storage in Europe's ARA oil-trading hub, according to Insights Global.
- Inventory type, latest level, weekly change (all in thousand metric tons) as follows:
- Gasoline: 1,247, +5
- Naphtha: 437, -40
- Gasoil: 2,106, +60
- Fuel Oil: 1,511, -2
- Jet Fuel: 708, -61
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RBNZ: Decision Primer
Feb-27 15:13
The latest RBNZ decision is due in Asia-Pac hours.
- The Bank’s mandate change coupled with NZ domestic data flow has led to some calling for a resumption of the hiking cycle, although this isn’t our Asia-Pac team’s base case (full preview here).
- 22/24 surveyed by BBG look for no change, while 2/24 look for a 25bp hike (ANZ and TD Securities).
- Numerous unchanged calls have hawkish caveats/warnings.
- NZ STIR markets show 7bp of tightening for the meeting (~28% odds of a 25bp hike hike).
- Terminal policy rate pricing sits at ~5.65% through the end of the May meeting, ~60% odds of a 25bp hike by then (current OCR level 5.50%).
- Easing is priced beyond there, with Nov ’24 meeting pricing at ~5.22%.
- The NZD is marginally less susceptible to a hawkish ‘surprise’ than NZ rates given already long positioning (per CFTC data), although there has seemingly been some reduction in longs ahead of the event.
- Ultimately, positioning should not prohibit a rally in NZD if the RBNZ does hike.
- NZD/USD levels to watch: Resistance: 22 Feb high ($0.6218), Support: 15 Feb low ($0.6080).
- AUD/NZD levels to watch: Support: ’24 low/’23 low (NZD1.0570/60), Resistance: Feb 20 high/20-day EMA (NZD1.0649/1.0655).
- On the options side one desk sees “gamma buying in both AUD/NZD and NZD/USD in the lead up to RBNZ, with directional interest leaning towards topside for the former.”
PIPELINE: $2B Bank of England 3Y Priced, Saudi Wealth Fund Guidance Set
Feb-27 15:13
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 2/27 $2B *Bank of England 3Y +10
- 2/27 $1B NRW Bank WNG 3Y SOFR+34a
- 2/27 $1B KommuneKredit WNG 3Y SOFR+32
- 2/27 $500M Kommunalbanken 4Y SOFR+40a
- 2/26 $Benchmark SMFG PerpNC10.25 7.0%a
- 2/27 $Benchmark Willis NA 30Y +175a
- 2/27 $Benchmark SEB 3Y +100a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +145a
- 2/27 $Benchmark Rabobank 3Y +75a, 3Y SOFR, 6NC5 +140a
- 2/27 $Benchmark Agence Francaise de Developpement (AFD) 5Y +52
- 2/27 $Benchmark Public Inv Fund (PIF; SA wealth fund) Sukuk 7+85 (book over $17B)
GILTS: Off Lows On U.S. Data
Feb-27 15:08
Gilts move away from lows on the U.S. data.
- Spillover from hedging surrounding the pricing of EGB syndications had resulted in fresh session lows ahead of the data.
- Gilt futures stick to the range seen in recent sessions, with the bearish technical threat intact.
- Contract last -29 at 97.46 (97.33-98.15 range).
- Gilt yields 1.0-5.5bp higher across the curve, intermediates leading today’s weakness.
