GLOBAL: Oil Prices Spike, Equities Fall on Iran Nuclear Talks Headlines
Feb-04 17:35
- Behind the spike in oil prices and pullback in equities: "Scoop: Plans for Iran nuclear talks are collapsing, U.S. officials say" - Axios -- https://www.axios.com/2026/02/04/iran-nuclear-talks-canceled-witkoff
- "The U.S. told Iran on Wednesday that it will not agree to Tehran's demands to change the location and format of talks planned for Friday, two U.S. officials told Axios."
- A few minutes earlier from Reuters' National Security Correspondent @idreesali114 on x.com: "Senior Iranian official tells Reuters that talks with U.S. in Oman will be only about nuclear, missile program is off the table. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio earlier today said for the talks to be meaningful they would have to include Iran's ballistic missiles." https://x.com/idreesali114/status/2019099880950464706
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BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bull Flatter Ahead Of FR, DE Inflation
Jan-05 17:29
European curves bull flattened Monday.
- Cash bonds posted a fairly indifferent start to the week's trade, in spite of weekend geopolitical volatility after the US's removal of the Venezuelan president.
- Early gains in core bonds on softer oil prices were tempered by a rise in equities/risk appetite and a rebound in oil, but ultimately yields resolved to the downside.
- A soft US ISM Manufacturing reading in mid-afternoon didn't have much immediate impact but help drag Treasury yields lower, helping EGBs and Gilts consolidate gains into the cash close.
- On the day, both the UK and German curves bull flattened, while periphery / semi-core EGB spreads tightened modestly.
- Tuesday's calendar highlight is flash December inflation data from Germany and France, both of which are expected to show some moderation - MNI's preview is here.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.2bps at 2.127%, 5-Yr is down 2.3bps at 2.453%, 10-Yr is down 3bps at 2.87%, and 30-Yr is down 3.4bps at 3.507%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.5bps at 3.72%, 5-Yr is down 2.3bps at 3.938%, 10-Yr is down 3.1bps at 4.506%, and 30-Yr is down 2.7bps at 5.246%.
- Italian BTP spread down 1.4bps at 69.9bps / Spanish down 0.8bps at 43bps
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat Remains Present
Jan-05 17:20
- RES 4: 113-07 High Dec 3
- RES 3: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-25+ high Dec 30 / 31
- RES 1: 112-20 50 -day EMA
- PRICE: 112-14+ @ 17:17 GMT Jan 5
- SUP 1: 112-01+/111-29 Low Dec 23 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
Treasuries continue to trade above key support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low and a bear trigger. The trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
US TSY OPTIONS: Upside Call Buyer Resumes Position Building
Jan-05 17:03
Covered call buyer picks up where they left off prior to the holiday's:
- +50,000 TYH6 114 calls, 14 ref 112-15 (exp 2/20) total volume over 64,900 (open interest 56,410 coming into the session).
- +10,000 TYG6/TYH6 113 call spds 17
- +20,000 TYG6 114 calls, 3 vs. 112-12.5 to -13
- +5,000 TYG6 114 calls, 2 ref 112-12
