OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Ticks up on Week

Sep-13 18:05

WTI has moved into losses on the day, as output returns in the USGC following Hurricane Francine. However, crude is headed for a net weekly gain, supported by previous production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico, and risk on sentiment ahead of expected Fed rate cuts.

  • WTI OCT 24 down 0.6% at 68.53$/bbl
  • US total oil rig count was up 5 on the week at 488 rigs, according to Baker Hughes, down 27 rigs, or 5.2% on the year.
  • Money managers have flipped to bearish from bullish on ICE Brent crude oil as the market is now net-short by 12,680 lots, according to Bloomberg citing ICE data.
  • Shell said Sep. 13 that they are ramping up production at its Appomattox, Mars, Vito, Ursa and Olympus platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico, Reuters reported.
  • Libya’s crude exports continued to slump as UN-led talks failed to break an impasse over control of the country’s central bank, Bloomberg said.
  • However, Libya is still exporting crude despite an ongoing two-week blockade, Argus said.
  • Saudi Arabia is on course to produce less than 9m b/d of crude oil in 2024, MEES said.
  • Crude oil and condensates output from Nigeria edged up to 1.57m b/d in August compared to 1.53m b/d in July
  • Sharp declines in North Sea and WAF crude premiums signal pressure ahead for the physical crude market, according to Sparta Commodities.
  • Russian Urals crude loadings from its Baltic Ports are set to rise to 6.6m mt, or 1.61m b/d, Bloomberg said.
  • CPC oil exports across Jan-Aug rose by 2.6% on the year to 43.8m mt.
  • Nigeria’s overhang of September crude cargoes has now cleared, but October differentials remain under pressure, Reuters said.

Historical bullets

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

Aug-14 17:55
  • RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28
  • RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
  • RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 0.8583 @ 15:22 BST Aug 14
  • SUP 1: 0.8531 Low Aug 13
  • SUP 2: 0.8507 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 0.8488 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent impulsive gains resulted in the break of a number of key resistance points, cancelling a bearish theme and highlighting potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8488, the 50-day EMA. First support is 0.8531, the Aug 13 low. A retracement is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.

LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Wkly Claims, Retail Sales, Imp/Exp, IP/Cap-U

Aug-14 17:48
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • Aug-15 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (233k, 235k)
  • Aug-15 0830 Continuing Claims (1.875m, 1.870m)
  • Aug-15 0830 Empire Manufacturing ((-6.6, -6.0)
  • Aug-15 0830 Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.0%, 0.4%)
  • Aug-15 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (0.4%, 0.1%)
  • Aug-15 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (0.8%, 0.2%)
  • Aug-15 0830 Retail Sales Control Group (0.9%, 0.1%)
  • Aug-15 0830 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (13.9, 5.0)
  • Aug-15 0830 Import Price Index MoM (0.0%, -0.1%), YoY (1.6%, 1.5%)
  • Aug-15 0830 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (0.2%, 0.1%)
  • Aug-15 0830 Export Price Index MoM (-0.5%, 0.0%), YoY (0.7%, 0.1%)
  • Aug-15 0910 StL Fed Musalem on economy, mon-pol (no text, Q&A)
  • Aug-15 0915 Industrial Production MoM (0.6%, -0.3%)
  • Aug-15 0915 Capacity Utilization (78.8%, 78.5%)
  • Aug-15 0915 Manufacturing (SIC) Production (0.4%, -0.3%)
  • Aug-15 1000 Business Inventories (0.5%, 0.3%)
  • Aug-15 1000 NAHB Housing Market Index (42, 43)
  • Aug-15 1130 US Tsy 4W, 8W Bill auctions
  • Aug-15 1310 Philly Fed Harker economic data speech (text, no Q&A)
  • Aug-15 1600 Total Net TIC Flows ($15.8B, --)
  • Aug-15 1600 Net Long-term TIC Flows (-$54.6B, --)

NZD: Kiwi Extends Intra-Day Declines to 1.2%

Aug-14 17:43
  • A solid bounce off the lows for the USD index has continued to hamper the New Zealand dollar on Wednesday, with the overnight dovish turn from the RBNZ continuing to drive the price action. NZDUSD is now testing fresh session lows at the psychological 0.6000 mark.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will take a gradual, smooth path to a lower rate environment following Wednesday's decision to cut the official cash rate 25 basis points to 5.25%, though the Monetary Policy Committee discussed a 50bp cut at its meeting at which it slashed its rate outlook, Governor Adrian Orr told reporters on Wednesday.
  • The solid backdrop of recent equities outperformance and a test of the 20-day EMA could point to this being a corrective pullback for the pair. However, protracted weakness might signal scope for a move back to key medium-term support of 0.5852.