OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Highest Since Nov. 8
Nov-21 12:21
Crude is climbing today to its highest level since Nov. 8, as concerns over an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and a slightly weaker US dollar are set against pressure from a small build in US crude inventories.
- Brent JAN 25 up 2% at 74.23$/bbl
- WTI JAN 25 up 2.1% at 70.2$/bbl
- Upside moves are limited by concerns for consumption in China and risk of an oil market surplus next year amid potential rising OPEC and non-OPEC supply.
- China’s oil product demand is set to decline 2% this year as new EVs and LNG trucks displace 50m tons, CNPC said cited by Bloomberg.
- The escalatory nature of the Russia/Ukraine conflict is still adding support for energy markets. The conflict ratcheted higher this week after Ukraine was permitted by Washington to launch U.S. ATACMS missiles at targets in Russia on Tuesday.
- Donald Trump’s new administration is looking to restart the Keystone XL pipeline project on his first day back in office according to Politico sources.
- Nigeria plans to load 153k b/d of Qua Iboa crude in January, according to Bloomberg.
- Guyana's fourth oil floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facility is expected to depart for Guyana in Q1 2025, said the CEO of Hess, according to Reuters.
- Russian use of sanctioned vessels has risen after initial deliveries were without issue, according to Bloomberg.
- Goldman forecasts Brent to rise to an average of $76/bbl in 2025 with a peak of $78/bbl in June before edging down to $73/bbl by December 2025.
- A recent decision relating to export taxes in China cut curb exports of oil products and trigger lower crude throughput, Citi said in a note cited by Bloomberg.
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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Race Deadlocked Despite Trump Momentum
Oct-22 12:14
Executive summary:
- Former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris according to most of the major presidential election forecast models.
- The New York Times national polling average has tightened to a single percentage-point lead for Harris. Such a narrow lead is likely to worry Democrats, who fear a repeat of Trump’s Electoral College advantage and fear that a polling miss is more likely to benefit Trump than Harris.
- Campaign financing records show that Harris raised USD$1B faster than any other presidential candidate in history.
- Republicans lead in statewide early voting in Nevada for the first time in a presidential year since 2008.
- Democrats’ prospects of retaining the Senate are looking even dimmer, with three races across the Midwest tightening in line with the presidential race.
- The 2025 Congress is likely to be crypto-friendly, regardless of who controls the gavels and occupies the White House.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Middle East yesterday for his 11th trip to the region since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
- US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed to reporters yesterday that an advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system and 100 US ground troops are now in place in Israel.
- Poll of the Day: Trump's favourability is higher than 2020 and 2016, suggesting he could have a higher vote-share ceiling than many analysts presume.
Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief
