OIL: India's HPCL Says Russian Oil Discount Has Declined Significantly
Oct-25 11:24
Indian oil company HPCL says the discount on Russian oil has declined significantly but is still cheaper than alternatives.
- 40-45% of HPCL's crude oil requirement is Russian oil.
- HCPL hopes to commission residue upgradation units at its Vizag refinery in around March next year.
- The company will get commissioning cargo for Chhara LNG terminal in Nov-Dec.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Bear Cycle Still In Play
Sep-25 11:22
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down - a correction - has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. This does signal scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.68. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact, however, the sell-off that started Sep 7, highlights a corrective phase and this week’s move lower suggests potential for a continuation near-term. Support at 98.92, 76.4% of the Sep 2 - 17 bull leg, has been cleared and this strengthens the current bearish theme. The break exposes the key support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus sights on 101.54, Sep 17 high.Initial resistance is at 99.82, the 20-day EMA.
SONIA: Call fly buyer
Sep-25 11:20
SFIZ4 95.50/95.65/95.80c fly, bought for 3.25 in 5.5k.
US DATA: Another Step Higher In Mortgage Refinancing
Sep-25 11:13
Composite applications increased 11% last week (sa) after 14.2% the week prior as refinancing applications continue to respond to the reduction in interest rates.
- Refi applications increased another 20% after the 24%, whilst new purchase application increased 1.4% after an unusually strong 5.4% compared to recent months.
- Refis set fresh highs since Apr 2022 and are at 65% of their 2019 average vs 57% for new purchases.
- Since recent lows seen in July, composite applications have increased 47%, with 12% for new purchases vs 99% for refis.
- The 30Y mortgage rate dipped 2bps to fresh recent lows of 6.13%, 116bp lower than the April peak.
- In further signs of tightening of some lending standards, the 30Y jumbo loan rate increased 6bps to 6.47%, with the spread of -34bps at fresh recent lows for levels last seen in late 2020.
