OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises
Jan-21 19:36
Crude has reversed earlier losses and is slightly higher on the day as the market weighs geopolitical uncertainty around Trump’s push to take Greenland against disruption to CPC supplies.
- WTI MAR 26 up 0.5% at 60.64$/bbl
- EIA Surveys (bbl): -0.868m (Bbg), -0.5m (WSJ)
- Trump said on Truth social he won’t impose tariffs on Europe from Feb. 1 and that a framework for a future deal on Greenland with NATO has been formed.
- In his speech at Davos, Trump said the US is seeking negotiations to acquire Greenland and won’t use force to acquire it. On Ukraine, Trump plans to meet Zelenskiy tomorrow and has said a deal is reasonably close.
- Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev oil fields could be halted for another 7-10 days after shutting down on Jan. 18. Tengizchevroil has declared force majeure, according to Reuters.
- The CPC is close to restarting Mooring 3 after operating at reduced capacity since November, Bloomberg reports.
- Oil from Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field has been diverted to the domestic market for the first time due to bottlenecks at the CPC, four sources told Reuters.
- The US has seized a seventh dark fleet tanker, Motor Vessel Sagitta.
- Operations at four Libyan oil terminals have resumed operations after weather-linked disruption, Reuters sources said.
- India’s Reliance Industries is set to receive sanctions-compliant Russian oil in February and March after a one-month pause, four sources told Reuters.
- India’s BPCL is seeking long-term Middle East crude purchases for delivery from April to March 2027, as a sign for a move away from Russian cargoes.
- The IEA slightly increased its forecasts for oil demand growth in 2026 for a third consecutive month – in return, trimming its glut outlook.
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USDJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
Dec-22 19:30
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 157.03 @ 15:31 GMT Dec 22
- SUP 1: 155.71/154.29 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 153.62 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29
The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and Friday’s strong rally reinforces this theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 154.29, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.
CANADA DATA: Industrial Price Pressures Stay Elevated Though CPI Impact Mixed
Dec-22 19:27
Canadian industry price pressures moderated in November versus October's jump, but remained elevated. While core gauges have tended to presage movement in CPI aggregates, the composition suggests that the feedthrough to consumer prices is not so clear, and in any case there is a reasonably long lag.
- The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), which measures the prices of products manufactured in Canada, rose 0.9% M/M after a 26-month high 1.7% in Oct (rev from 1.5%), with the core measure (ex-energy/petroleum products) up 0.4% after a 44-month high 2.0% (rev from 1.9%). This left the annual run rates at 6.1% (5.7% prior) and 6.2% (6.3% prior), respectively, both the highest since 2022.
- Raw materials prices ex-energy/petroleum products likewise saw moderation in growth, to 0.6% M/M after 4.3% in October and 3.1% in September, but the Y/Y rate was still a very elevated 19.0%.
- Most product groups saw price increases in November though rises were led by energy products. And additionally there was a continued upward pressure from "higher prices for unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys (+1.4%)". This was largely due to investor demand for precious metals.
- That was even more stark on a Y/Y basis per StatCan: "16 of 21 commodity groups posted year-over-year increases. The year-over-year increase in the IPPI was driven by price movements in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys (+58.7%), the largest year-over-year increase for this product group since September 2011. Other product groups that were key upward contributors in November 2025 included fresh and frozen poultry of all types (+37.9%) and fresh and frozen beef and veal (+28.1%)."
- As such the most salient aspect in terms of CPI may be in food prices, which were up over 4% Y/Y in November for the first time since 2023, even as the overall CPI basket has remained closer to 2% Y/Y.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Stock Gains a Nice Stocking Stuffer
Dec-22 19:17
- Stocks are holding decent gains at the start of the shortened Christmas holiday week, albeit amid generally light volumes on by late Monday.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 209.24 points (0.43%) at 48339.18, S&P E-Mini Futures up 37.75 points (0.55%) at 6924.75, Nasdaq up 109.9 points (0.5%) at 23415.97.
- A mix of Energy, Materials, Pharmaceutical, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sector shares led advances in the second half: First Solar +6.67%, Moderna +6.04%, Huntington Ingalls +5.80%, Constellation Brands +5.09%, Norwegian Cruise Line +4.67%, Paramount Skydance +4.18% and Warner Bros Discovery +3.44%.
- Of note, Netflix trades 1.4% lower at the moment after they announced refinancing of a part of its $59B bridge facility with a $5B RCF and two $10B delayed-draw term loans. NFLX is expected to issue up to $25B senior unsecured notes on or before the closing date.
- Conversely, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Information Technology sector shares underperformed late Monday:
- Dollar Tree -3.97%, Target -2.86%, Lamb Weston Holdings -2.46% and Molson Coors Beverage -2.12%.
- Dominion Energy -5.35%, Eversource Energy -1.86% and Vistra Corp -0.49%.
- Seagate Technology -4.49%, Western Digital -2.48%, Zebra Technologies -1.08% and Apple -1.06%.
