POLAND: October Inflation Undershoots Expectations
Oct-31 09:11
Poland's headline inflation came in at +2.8% Y/Y, undershooting Bloomberg consensus forecast of +3.0% (the vast majority of analysts were split between +2.9% and +3.0%). In sequential terms, prices rose by just 0.1% M/M in October versus +0.3% expected.
- The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages went up by 3.4% Y/Y, electricity, gas and other fuels prices were 2.6% Y/Y higher, while 'fuels for personal transport equipment' cheapened by 1.8% Y/Y.
- The data released this morning are preliminary and Statistics Poland, with the final report due for publication on November 14. However, advance readings will inform the MPC's next monetary policy decision on November 5.
- If confirmed, today's reading means that headline inflation fell to the lowest level since mid-2024 and moved closer to the NBP's point-target of +2.5% Y/Y.
- A note at the bottom of the document states that 'starting with data for 2026, the CPI will be calculated according to the international COICOP 2018 classification.'
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EUROPEAN INFLATION: HICP broadly in line with consensus: The breakdown
Oct-01 09:08
- Eurozone HICP came in at a little below the MNI tracking of 2.3% with 2-way risks at 2.23%Y/Y, but broadly in line with the market consensus.
- Core and services both rounded down to consensus expectations, although core at 2.35%Y/Y was almost 2.4%.
- It appears as though FAT (food, alcohol and tobacco) is the only notably surprise, coming in softer than expected at 3.04%Y/Y (down from 3.19%Y/Y where it was expected to remain).
- No substantial market reaction, given that the data was broadly in line with expectations.
SWITZERLAND DATA: August Retail Sales Weak But Broader Picture Solid So Far
Oct-01 09:06
Swiss (real) retail sales were rather weak in August on a sequential comparison, at -0.2% M/M.
- Looking at the drivers of the release shows that weakness was centred in the "remaining" category (which contains a lot of durable goods, table below). The August data was the first incorporating the 39% US tariffs levied on Swiss goods. The question is if this filtered through to consumer scepticism here already.
- However, on a broader 3-month moving average of the Y/Y measure, Swiss retail sales continue to grow around their long term average rate, at a current 1.5% (1.6% July).
- This means the big picture is that the Swiss consumer overall continues to screen healthy. However, we watch for potential signs of a cooling of the propensity to consume going forward.
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Ireland To Hold 1 Bond Auction In Q4
Oct-01 09:04
- NTMA has confirmed that it will hold one auction in Q4-25, on Thursday 9 October. Details will be confirmed on Monday 6 October.
- We had pencilled in 0-1 auctions, but think that the market was looking for no more auctions this year given that the NTMA did not hold any auctions in Q4 in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 after reaching the bottom of the funding target range.
