US DATA: October CPI May Not Ever Be Released; Payrolls May Be Partial
Nov-11 20:12
When will the monthly inflation and employment reports be released?
- Our thinking on this topic is partly based on the 2013 experience, but also largely on interviews our Policy Team conducted with two ex-BLS commissioners available here and here.
- CPI: Starting with CPI: the BLS already released September data (albeit delayed), but as of this week will have postponed the October release. It looks unlikely that the BLS will be able to release October CPI at all: most of the survey and otherwise data required was not collected in the month.
- For November’s report, it’s a close call whether the data can be released. For example, it is questionable whether BLS field agents can collect 4 weeks of data in half that time. It will be a judgment call on the part of the BLS whether to publish their best estimate of November CPI. If they do, it is possible they linearly divide the price index growth over 2 months, to fill in a number for Oct CPI and Nov CPI. This would be unprecedented so we’re not sure what the data set would look like.
- Overall, CPI data look like they will be less robust than usual until at least the December report out in Jan.
- Nonfarm Payrolls: In better news, the BLS is probably in a position to start releasing data as soon as Friday, namely the September nonfarm payrolls report which by all accounts was already in hand as the shutdown began. Indeed we wouldn’t be surprised by a Friday morning release though this could slip into early next week (per the 2013 template).
- For the October data, we could see a partial release. The establishment data are collected electronically, so the payrolls figures will be published. However, the household survey – which is used to produce variables including the unemployment and participation rates - was never fielded, and may never be.
- For November, again looking at the 2013 example, the BLS was able to publish October payrolls on Nov 8, exactly a week after its originally scheduled date. The 2025 shutdown may have concluded just in time to allow for a similarly limited delay this time (so a Dec 5 scheduled release may be pushed back to Dec 12).
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
Oct-10 20:58
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
Oct-10 20:42
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Oct-10 20:35
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
