BONDS: NZGBS: Modest Bull-Flattener, Outperforms $-Bloc

NZGBs closed showing a bull-flattener on a data-light day, with benchmark yields flat to 2bps lower.

• Domestic credit card spending on all cards rises 1% m/m (-1.4% y/y), according to the RBNZ.
• NZGBs outperformed their $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials 4bps and 3bps tighter respectively.
• Cash US tsys are 1-3bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s twist-steepener.
• Swap rates closed 1-2bps lower.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly firmer across meetings. 47bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 109bps by November 2025. Relative to pre-CPI levels, pricing is slightly mixed, with meetings out to July 2-3bps softer and meetings beyond ~2bps firmer.
• The local calendar is empty until the release of Filled Jobs data on Tuesday.