NZD: NZD/USD - Hovering Just Above 0.5750-0.5800
The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5804 - 0.5833, Asia is currently trading around 0.5805. The N...
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Tuesday
| 0000BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia 2036 Bond Sale |
| 0100BST | 0900HKT | 1200AEDT | China 5yr & 1yr Loan Prime Rate |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/MNI
USDCAD TECHS: Trading Below Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3929 High Jan 16 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 1.3845 High Jan 22
- RES 2: 1.3728 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3725 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 1.3699 @ 20:28 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 1.3594/3482 Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend
Last week’s gains in USDCAD resulted in a move through resistance at the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3725, the Feb 2 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would suggest scope for a stronger S/T bull cycle instead. The M/T trend structure remains bearish - MA studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and bear trigger at 1.3482, the Jan 30 low.
NZD: NZD/USD - Fails Above 0.6000, Looks To Consolidate Within Range
The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5952 - 0.5989, Asia is currently trading around 0.5955. The NZD failed above 0.6000 and drifted lower as the USD got a lift from risk moving lower. A bit of a mess is the best way to describe the situation with the market a little unsure on how to trade it. The pivotal resistance toward 0.6100-0.6150 continues to cap for now and the dovish read of the RBNZ has delayed its challenge in the short-term. On the day, price remains in the potential 0.5885-0.6015 range, I will be watching to see if the USD bears can regain control. Failure to do so would risk a move sub 0.5900 which could potentially signal a deeper pullback.
- “The EU voted to freeze ratification of its US trade deal after the Supreme Court upended Trump’s tariff plans, while India is said to have more wiggle room in its talks with the White House. The US president warned trading partners not to “play games.” - BBG
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5695(NZD577m Feb 27), 0.5950(NZD358m Feb 25) - BBG
- The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 53 Points
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
