NZD: NZD/USD - Finds Demand Below 0.6750, Look For Sellers Above 0.5800 Again
The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5737 - 0.5788, Asia is trading around 0.5785. US equities cannot be kept down and surged to new highs again regaining momentum after they looked to have stalled. The USD did really react to this, consolidating its recent gains. After falling over 1% on the surprise RBNZ cut, the NZD found strong demand just below the 0.5750 area and has bounced overnight as risk looks to regain its momentum higher. That does look like an ugly shadow on the Daily chart but I suspect rallies will continue to be faded while we remain below 0.5850. The NZD remains one of the stand out vehicles to express a short, again you just have to decide what against.
- MNI RBNZ WATCH: MPC Strengthens Easing Bias With 50bp Cut. The RBNZ will closely watch the Q3 CPI, due Oct 20, which it expects at 3.0%, and the Q3 labour market report on Nov 5, which the August statement forecast to show a 5.3% unemployment rate, ahead of its next and last meeting for 2025.
- Bloomberg reports banks are lowering their expected cash rates in response to yesterday: “Some Economists Expect RBNZ Will Cut Cash Rate to 2% or Lower. Citi economists expect the OCR will fall as low as 1.75% in early 2026. JPMorgan economists expect the OCR will drop to 2% in February.”
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5850(NZD300m Oct 14) - BBG
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Tuesday
| 2345BST | 0645HKT | 0845AEST | New Zealand Q2 Manufacturing Activity |
| 0001BST | 0701HKT | 0901AEST | UK Aug BRC Sales Y/Y |
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 0950AEST | Japan Aug Money Stock |
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1030AEST | Australia Westpac Sep Consumer Confidence |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | Australia NAB Aug Business Confidence |
| 0335BST | 1035HKT | 1235AEST | New Zealand Bill Sale |
| 0430BST | 1130HKT | 1330AEST | Japan 6 mth Bill sale |
| 0700BST | 1400HKT | 1600AEST | Japan Aug P Machine Tool Orders |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Sep 2025
We've just published our latest UST Issuance Deep Dive - Download Full Report Here
- September’s issuance schedule is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales (unch from the equivalent month in the previous quarter), in addition to $19B in 10Y TIPS (up $1B from prior) and $28B FRN (unch) for a total of $362B.
- Sales for the month start on Tuesday Sep 9 with $58B of 3Y Note, Wednesday Sep 10 with $39B of 10Y Note reopen, and Thursday Sep 11 with $22B of 30Y Bond reopen.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Expectations For Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision
The below is from the MNI Preview for tomorrow's US Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revisions, found in full here.
We see estimates with wide ranges but with a median based on mid-point estimates of around -750k or subtracting just over 60k per month from currently published jobs numbers to Mar 2025. However, these preliminary estimates have a strong tendency of being too negative at point of release – we go into this more below.
- Fed Governor Waller: Around -60k/month (i.e. circa -720k)
- Speaking on Aug 28 (prior to latest payrolls data and based off 4Q24 QCEW data): “That's the picture after the unusually large revisions to May and June payrolls and the soft reading for July that was included in the latest jobs report. In addition to those revisions, on September 9 we will get a preliminary estimate of what to expect in the annual "benchmark" revisions to 2025 early next year. I estimate that monthly job creation will be reduced by an average of about 60,000 a month. That would mean that private-sector employment actually shrank, on average, in the past three months and that job creation earlier in the year was weaker than currently reported.”
- Waller is a permanent voter and leading contender for next Fed Chair role. He first made these remarks ahead of the July FOMC when he indicated he would push ahead with a call to start cutting rates.
- Tsy Sec Bessent: -800k. “We’re going to get the revisions for last year next week. There may be as big as a 800k downward revision. This would be a second downward revision […] We need good data.” (Sep 7 on NBC’s Meet The Press)
Sellside estimates (see more detailed color below) for Apr 2024-Mar 2025 revisions:
- Barclays: Preliminary estimate of -1-1.3mn before -0.8-1.1mn final
- SEB: Preliminary estimate of possibly -900k before closer to -700k in the final revision
- BMO: -800k
- BofA -500k to -1000k
- GS: -550k to -950k or a 45-80k downward revision to average monthly payroll growth
- Nomura: -600k to -900k
- Wells Fargo: -475k to -790k
- DB: Eyeing -50k to -60k per month, i.e. somewhere around -600k to -720k
- TD Securities: -590k
- UBS: -550k
