NZD: NZD/USD - Drifts Lower, Playing Catch Up To The Move In Risk

The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5639 - 0.5661 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5640, -0.30%. The NZD/USD has drifted lower in our session with risk continuing to trade under pressure. The NZD reaction lower was still rather underwhelming and continues to hint toward a market that is all the same way and therefore paring back some risk. Should this move lower in risk grow into something more than just a pullback then the NZD should once again come back under pressure though. On the day watch to see if the NZD stalls toward the 0.5665-80 area again looking for a move lower later.

• "RBNZ Business Survey Shows Lower Two-Year Inflation Expectation. Reserve Bank of New Zealand publishes Tara-ā-Umanga Business Expectations Survey, for 4q. Weighted mean 1-year ahead inflation expectation falls to 2.42% from 2.53% in 3q, 2-year declines to 2.39% from 2.64%" - BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5480(NZD644m Nov 21), 0.5730(NZD434m Nov 19), 0.5835(NZD300m Nov19) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 41 Points

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The USD/JPY range today has been 155.11 - 155.38 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 155.20, -0.05%. The move lower in risk did not bring the usual bout of Yen buying as its safe haven status begins to be questioned. USD/JPY I suspect will remain well supported on dips as the market remains wary of the new leadership policies together with a reticence to hike rates. I will be watching today to see if the pair can build on its move above 155.00 and regain its momentum higher, look for dips in the Asian session back toward 144.70-144.90 to be supported on dips initially. A sustained move above here and the market will turn its focus back toward 160, much to the displeasure of the MOF/BOJ.

• "Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday as she mulls support for an economy that shrank over the summer. The two will meet at 3:30 p.m. in Tokyo, according to the prime minister's office. The meeting comes after a report showed the Japanese economy contracted in the three months through September on a US tariff-linked slump in exports and a sharp drop in property buying." - BBG
• MacroEdge reporting on X that, "Japanese 20Y hits highest level since July 1999 as Prime Minister doubles down on printing."
• “JAPAN FINMIN KATAYAMA: RECENTLY SEEING ONE-SIDED, RAPID MOVES, ALARMED OVER FX MOVES. WILL THOROUGHLY MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE FLUCTUATIONS AND DISORDERLY MOVEMENTS IN FOREX MARKET, WITH HIGH SENSE OF URGENCY - RTRS"
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 155.50($527m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($1.34b  Nov 20), 150.00{$1.3b Nov 20) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 99 Points

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6477 - 0.6499 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6480, -0.25%. The AUD/USD has drifted lower in our session being led by the move lower in risk, driven predominantly by the collapse in Crypto. Bitcoin and Crypto continue to lead this leg lower as leverage is being squeezed, Bitcoin below the pivotal $90k area could add to the current market headwinds. The AUD/USD is testing below 0.6500 this morning, some good support back toward 0.6440-0.6460 which has been pretty solid the last couple of months, then 0.6350 below that. It would need this move lower in risk to accelerate and become something more significant to challenge down there I would think.

• MNI AU - RBA: 2-Way Risks, How They Develop Likely To Determine If Hold Prolonged. The November meeting minutes reiterated that the RBA’s central scenario is “in balance” with risks to both the downside and upside. How these risks will develop is likely to determine whether monetary policy stays on hold or rates are cut further and while it is “not yet possible to be confident” about which scenario will materialise, the Board will “remain cautious and data dependent”. With core inflation above target and ongoing signs of a recovery in demand, policy is likely to be on hold in December and into early 2026, depending on the data.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6400(AUD913m), 0.6600 (AUD729m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6550(AUD2.28b Nov 21) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 47 Points

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P